The Welsh government has been accused of 'wandering blindly toward disaster' as its own impact assessment into Wales' post-Brexit agricultural scheme paints a bleak picture.
The assessment, which was commissioned by the Welsh government, examined the impact of the Sustainable Farming Scheme (SFS) proposals.
Based on the potential economic effects of the previous 2022 outline proposals for the SFS, the modelling predicts a near 11% fall in livestock numbers, representing 122,000 units.
There would also be an 11% cut in labour on Welsh farms – the equivalent of losing 5,500 jobs based on current employment levels on farms.
The National Sheep Association said it was 'deeply concerned' with the report as the new scheme could 'threaten the future of the sector in Wales'.
“NSA is alarmed by results from the Welsh government’s own impact assessment that paints a bleak picture for Welsh agriculture as a whole," said NSA chief executive Phil Stocker.
"It is incredibly damaging for an industry already under immense strain to have proposals that now seem flimsy and lacking in genuine support for a critical infrastructure sector."
The modelling, undertaken on the 2022 SFS proposals as part of the impact assessment, indicates the scheme would result in a 122,200 reduction in Welsh livestock units and an 11% reduction across the national flock.
The NSA said that the magnitude of the reductions, with or without a top-up payment, highlighted the significant difficulties for businesses to find alternative income sources.
With 12 months until the SFS introduction, the body warned that the Welsh government was 'wandering blindly towards a disaster for the industry'.
Furthermore, any adjustment or diversification would be limited by policy constraints.
Mr Stocker added: "There must be action now to ensure there is meaningful capacity to maintain livelihoods of those working in agriculture.”
NSA Cymru development officer, Helen Roberts warned that the agricultural sector was 'operating on a knife edge' with increasing pressures on the bottom line.
She said: "It is concerning that Welsh government is only giving businesses 12 months to consider the implications of entering the SFS, with little pilot process planned or dynamic implementation process.
"NSA is concerned that if Welsh government doesn’t take action it will result in devasting effects not only on farming businesses but those that rely on them.”
The Welsh government commissioned assessment was carried out by ADAS, Scotland's Rural College (SRUC) and the University of Dublin.
The SFS ‘Keep Farmers Farming’ consultation, launched by the Welsh government, closes for responses on 7 March.
