Wheat production in the UK for this year is set to see an increase from 2024 levels, according to estimates by levy organisation AHDB.
Production is forecast to rise to 12.5 million tonnes (Mt) from 2024’s 11.1 Mt, even under a low yield scenario, due to the 5% rebound in the crop area.
This is based on production scenarios calculated using AHDB's early bird survey (EBS) and the lowest, average and highest yields from the past five years.
However, anecdotal reports suggest a slightly higher area of wheat has been planted than reported in the EBS, which is a survey of planting intentions.
AHDB said this was likely due to concerns over the wet start to the autumn and doubts over whether winter plantings would be completed.
Helen Plant, analyst at the AHDB explained: "Because of this, we have looked at an alternative scenario too, adding an additional 5% onto the EBS area estimate.
"Yet even under this alternative scenario, unless yields are above average, production would still not return to the 2019-2023 average production level of 13.9 Mt."
The next few months, as spring drilling progresses and the winter crops develop, would be key for indicating what we can expect yield-wise, AHDB said.
Given a challenging start, achieving the average to five-year maximum yield across the UK would require particularly favourable conditions for the rest of the season.
AHDB is set to publish its first crop condition report of 2025, on 28 March.
Its 2025 planting and variety survey will also give further insight into the area for harvest 2025, which opens on 7 April.
