There will be further declines in British beef and sheep meat production by 2030, with farmers urged to 'think and act differently' to mitigate it.
A new report released on Friday (22 November) forecasts a possible 6.1 percent decline in GB beef production by 2030.
The figure is included in analysis by AHDB which aims to understand how cattle and sheep supplies may change in the future.
The levy organisation says this is imperative for the strategic planning of farm businesses involved in the production of beef and sheep meat.
It forecasts future supplies of beef and sheep meat production based on recent historical trends and creates a ‘landing zone’ for production by 2030 using a set of four scenarios.
The ‘baseline’ scenario applies the 10-year average rate of annual change to the national dairy and suckler herds cow herds and the national breeding ewe flock from 2025 onwards.
To forecast a range around this baseline, a ‘best-case’ and ‘worst-case’ scenario have been modelled, along with a ‘best-case+’ scenario.
This builds on the forecast range by offering a realistic trajectory for production if producer confidence and efficiency improve further.
The baseline scenario for beef forecasts a 6.1% decline in production by 2030, according to AHDB's analysis.
With more positive market conditions and profitability, the best-case scenario could look like a 5.2% drop in production, while the best-case+ is a forecasted reduction of 2.2%.
Hannah Clarke, AHDB lead analyst said: “When we look ahead, the likely ‘landing zone’ is for a reduced level of beef production in Great Britain by 2030.”
For sheep meat, the baseline scenario forecasts production could drop by 0.6 percent by 2030.
With a slower pace of decline in the female breeding flock, the best-case and best-case+ scenarios forecast production could increase by 3.7% and 8.5% respectively.
Ms Clarke explained that there was a wide ‘landing zone’ for sheep meat production by the year 2030.
"Whilst increases in production are expected in the best-case and best-case+ scenarios, there are steps which can be taken to offset the more pessimistic forecasts.”
The report highlights some focus areas where the beef and sheep sectors may need to think and act differently to mitigate a reduction in domestic supplies.
These include protecting and promoting the reputation of the industry, driving domestic demand and adding carcase value.
Sam Charlton, AHDB sector director, said: “The findings of our work will not come as a big surprise for those working in the industry who have faced challenges with domestic sourcing in recent years.
“This analysis raises awareness of the issue by quantifying the current direction of travel for GB production figures heading towards 2030.”
