Labour could lose three-quarters of its rural seats if an election was held today, a new poll has suggested following the farm inheritance tax proposal.
Sir Keir Starmer’s controversial 'family farm tax' could see the party hold onto just one in four of the seats Labour won in rural areas in July, according to the survey.
The Conservatives look set to benefit the most from Labour’s decline in rural areas, winning back more than half of the rural seats currently held by Labour (25 out of 49).
A further six would be won by Reform UK and five by the SNP, the More in Common survey says, which would reverse much of the gains made by Labour at this year’s election.
Mo Metcalf-Fisher, director of external affairs for the Countryside Alliance, called the inheritance tax proposal a 'bad political move' by the government.
He said: “Prior to the election, Labour had built up a fair amount of goodwill in the countryside.
"But that appears to have rapidly evaporated, not least as a result of the ongoing family farm tax row and the entirely avoidable fall out from that.
"It was a bad political move by Labour, which has left rural people feeling like they aren’t being listened to but it has also cut through with the wider public.
"Going forward into 2025, they need to urgently rethink the policy, engage with rural groups and prioritise doing things for the countryside, rather than to it”.
The results would see a dramatic change in the electoral landscape of rural Britain. Currently, Labour represents a third of rural constituencies and the Conservatives hold 37%.
The model shows that were an election held today, Labour would fall to representing just 9% of rural seats, whereas the Conservatives would hold 58%.
It comes as farming and rural groups prepare to hold a constituency wide day of action later in January.
Towns in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland will see farmers rallying against the changes, which were first announced in the autumn budget.
All four UK farming unions – NFU Scotland, NFU, NFU Cymru and Ulster Farmers’ Union - have organised the action, and will participate directly in it.
The day’s events will vary from region to region, but the unions' overarching message is that the tax is 'badly thought out' and it will 'crush family farming in Britain'.
The government announced in the budget a 20% inheritance tax for agricultural assets over £1m, which will roll out from April 2026.
The announcement triggered a series of protests and rallies across the country, with London seeing tens of thousands of farmers descend on it in the last month alone.
