Christmas could bring a boost to pork as it offers a cheaper alternative for those still looking to indulge amid the cost-of-living crisis, experts at AHDB say.
Pork roasting joints could be the winner at Christmas dinner – with analysts predicting red meat will challenge the traditional crown this festive season.
A new report published by AHDB looks at recent buying behaviours and market trends to pull-out predictions for Christmas celebrations.
With turkey losing volume share last December, the report details how revellers are moving away from the traditional centre piece to other options.
And with the cost-of-living crisis leaving many families cash-strapped, Christmas could bring a boost in particularly to pork.
The predictions follow warnings this week of a shortage of turkeys and price rises due to the country's largest ever bird flu outbreak.
AHDB senior retail insight manager, Kim Heath said that turkey shortages, the cost-of-living crisis and new buying trends over the last couple of Christmas’s all have the potential to lift sales of red meat this year.
“After two years of unpredictable Christmas periods, we had hoped this year would be about treating and huge celebrations,” she said.
“But the challenging economic situation means the cost-of-living crisis makes Christmas 2022 just as unpredictable as a Covid Christmas."
Because of this, there is likely to be a shift to cheaper roasting joints, benefiting pork.
"With a potential shortage of turkeys there is an opportunity for people to trade up to beef and lamb for consumers who want a showstopping centre piece.”
Frozen options for both meat and dairy-based desserts may also benefit from shoppers who are watching their budgets, the report says, with standard and value brands looking likely to steal market share this Christmas.
And with more families getting together this year, following several years of restrictions and uncertainty due to Covid, larger roasting joints could benefit with many switching back to bigger sizes to feed more people on Christmas day.
According to AHDB analysts, Christmas will still be the biggest seasonal event for retailers, with consumers spending more – even in times of economic uncertainty.
During the 2008 recession, spend per household on consumer-packaged foods during December was 11% higher than the average of the previous three months.
However, according to research agency Two Ears One Mouth, 53% of shoppers plan to make more of offers and price reductions in-store to cope with the rising cost of living.
Ms Heath added: “Despite the economic situation this year, we can safely predict that Christmas will still see significant uplifts compared to the rest of the year.
"However, a shopping basket may look different to previous years to cope with budgetary restraints."
