This year's UK oat crop is set to be the smallest since 2016, according to data from Defra and the devolved nations.
Provisional data from Defra and the Scottish government, plus estimates for Wales and Northern Ireland, point to the 2023 crop totalling 841 Kt.
This is down by 166 Kt from 2022 harvest and below the five-year average due to both a smaller area and lower yields in parts of England.
Looking at the figures, AHDB analyst Helen Plant said that prices in 2022 incentivised a switch back to planting oilseed rape as a break crop, reducing the oat area for harvest 2023.
"The smaller crop is reflected in UK average ex-farm prices, with feed oat prices so far above those of feed barley," she added.
"It is likely to have implications for oats used as animal feed this season."
Last season, usage of oats by GB feed compounders reduced as the season progressed.
The gap between feed oat and feed barley prices narrowed as the strong pace of oat exports reduced available oat supplies, this priced feed oats out of compound rations.
In the last two months of the 2022-2023 season (May and June), GB feed compounders used just 4.3 Kt of oats per month - the lowest level of oat usage by GB compounders since August 2020.
In total, 349 Kt of oats were used as animal feed last season, the lowest since 2019-2020.
Ms Plant explained that in the first two months of this season, oat usage by GB feed compounders was even lower again.
"They used 3.4 Kt of oats in July and 3.8 Kt in August 2023, making it the slowest start to a season’s usage since 2017/18," she said.
"Given the smaller crop size and current price relationships, it seems unlikely that we’ll see much recovery in compound usage of oats in the months ahead.
"The last few times the UK oat crop was below 1.0 Mt, around 300 Kt or fewer oats were used as animal feed in those seasons. However, on-farm usage this season remains uncertain."
The first insight into milling demand for oats this season will be from the quarterly usage survey on 2 November.
AHDB will release the first estimates of UK oat supply and demand on 28 November.
