A new initiative has launched to combat what some experts are predicting to be 'likely' UK food shortages within the next ten years, which could trigger civil unrest.
The project, led by food experts from Anglia Ruskin’s Global Sustainability Institute, aims to urgently address vulnerabilities in the UK food supply.
Potential causes of food shortages include geopolitical instability and conflict around the world, pandemics, cyberterrorism, extreme weather events and trade tariffs.
It builds on recent research that found that over 40% of food experts believe widespread civil unrest linked to food shortages is 'possible or likely' in the UK within the next 10 years.
Over 50 years, nearly 80% of experts believed civil unrest was either possible, more likely than not, or 'very likely'.
Called 'Backcasting to Increase Food System Resilience in the UK', the new project has received over £2m in funding from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council.
Experts warn that the UK’s food system is currently optimised for efficiency rather than resilience, relying heavily on imports, seasonal labour, and just-in-time supply chains.
This makes it particularly susceptible to disruptions that could lead to a 'collapse', defined as a situation where the public lack access to affordable food.
This event would lead to economic productivity losses, disease outbreaks, extreme hunger, malnutrition, or civil unrest, Anglia Ruskin researchers say.
Their project aims to identify ways of mitigating the potential tipping points that could lead to such a collapse and prioritise the areas within the UK food system that need to strengthen their resilience to likely risks and shocks.
To achieve these goals, the researchers will work closely with key stakeholders including farmers, food producers, importers, distributers and retailers.
A 'backcasting' mapping exercise will be carried out to identify the most likely pathways leading to civil unrest with a focus on addressing problems at the early stages of these pathways, well before any unrest arises.
Professor Aled Jones, director of Anglia Ruskin’s Global Sustainability Institute, said it was a 'major' project.
He said: “The food system is exposed to various risks from climate change and biodiversity loss to geopolitical events, such as wars or cyberterrorism.
"Supporting the UK’s food system stakeholders from farmers through to retail, by working with them to build on their knowledge to deliver a transformation towards resilience, is vital.
“The project will also involve placements inside organisations focusing on food system challenges, to better understand the interventions that may be possible, and allow wider lessons to be captured and shared."
Anglia Ruskin University is leading the project in partnership with the University of York, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, the University of the West of England and the Royal Agricultural University.
