Only one in ten Scottish farmers are positive about the future once the UK leaves the EU, a new survey shows.
Ongoing uncertainty around the Brexit process and a lack of clarity and direction on future policy and funding is eroding the confidence of Scotland’s farmers and crofters.
The results of a Brexit confidence survey, launched by NFU Scotland in mid-May, were released on Thursday 20 June, the first day of the 2019 Royal Highland Show.
The date marks almost three years since the historic referendum on membership of the European Union on June 23, 2016.
The survey, which gathered 689 responses, provides a stark picture of confidence levels within the agricultural industry.
For example, a majority of farmers surveyed (74%) haven’t undertaken any business planning around Brexit.
Taking ‘no deal’ out of the equation, 11% think that a Brexit deal would have a ‘positive’ or ‘very positive’ impact on their business and 55% think it will be ‘negative’ or ‘very negative’.
No appetite for 'no deal'
The survey shows that just over one in ten (11%) say a ‘no deal’ Brexit would have a ‘positive’ or ‘very positive’ impact on their business and 64% view it as ‘negative’ or ‘very negative’.
Nearly half (45%) have already experienced Brexit-related impacts (direct and indirect) since the referendum – of that, the main issues have been increased costs of inputs (54%); putting off new investments (51%); putting off expansion in the business (35%) and difficulty in recruiting and/or retaining staff (12%).
After Brexit, farmers anticipate increased cost in inputs (77%); difficulty with exports (51%); difficulty with importing inputs (38%); putting off new investments (38%) and expansion (30%); difficulty in agreeing future contracts (20%) and difficulty in recruiting and/or retaining staff (22%).
Over a third of farmers (36%) have considered additional or alternative farming or non-farming enterprises purely as a result of Brexit.
Lastly, 65% have some degree of confidence about their business longevity after Brexit while 35% have low or no confidence
'No clear direction'
The survey comes following a Scottish government poll which shows that 90% of the Scottish public recognise that farming is vital to economic growth.
NFU Scotland has warned that there would be far-reaching consequences for the delivery of goods in the national interest were farming allowed to slip into Brexit-induced decline.
President Andrew McCornick said: “Three years of frustrating to-ing and fro-ing on Brexit, with no clear political outcome or direction, have deeply eroded confidence at farm and croft level and left many of our members in a hole that is not of their making.
“The deep-rooted uncertainty around the whole Brexit process is reflected in the alarming number of Scottish farmers and crofters who have yet to undertake any business planning in connection with Brexit.
“Unsurprisingly, most respondents are negative or very negative about post-Brexit farming or crofting in Scotland, regardless of whether we leave the EU with or without a deal. The negativity jumps significantly in the event of a ‘no deal’,” he said.
Increased costs and investment delays
Brexit has already had an impact on many Scottish farming businesses through increased costs and the postponement of planned new investments.
Respondents to the survey are budgeting for a significant increase in input costs post-Brexit.
Many have had difficulty recruiting staff and a greater percentage expect that to become even more difficult post-Brexit.
Mr McCornick added: “It is a tribute to the resilience of our agricultural sector that a significant majority continue to see their future in farming and crofting.
“That said, one in three have little or no confidence about business longevity post-Brexit and that must set alarm bells ringing at both Westminster and Holyrood.
“Low confidence levels have clear implications for our future ambitions around growing our food and drink sector, protecting rural economies and meeting ever-demanding environmental standards.
“Scottish government and Westminster must wake up to the fact that people are making business decisions in a vacuum,” he said.
