Just one in 10 small farming businesses see growth, study says

Agriculture remains the worst hit amongst all sectors in terms of growth, the Novuna Business Finance study says
Agriculture remains the worst hit amongst all sectors in terms of growth, the Novuna Business Finance study says

Small farming businesses are seeing one of their most difficult quarters yet, with just one in ten firms in the sector predicting growth, figures show.

Despite a difficult quarter for many businesses, with growth forecasts hitting their lowest in two years, agriculture remains the worst hit amongst all sectors.

This is according to Novuna Business Finance, whose study shows that just 11% of small agricultural businesses see growth, down from 25% in the last quarter.

The proportion of small businesses anticipating a period of either modest contraction or struggling to survive rose this quarter to 28% - the highest figure since Covid-restrictions were lifted.

This proportion was almost double that of Q3 22, where 16% were anticipating a period of contraction.

Novuna's study has been tracking small business growth predictions against prevailing market conditions every quarter since 2015.

At the start of each quarter, it asks a representative sample of 1,200 small business owners about their growth predictions for the next three months.

Jo Morris, head of insight at Novuna, said small farming businesses in particular faced 'seismic economic challenges' in the autumn and winter months.

"We were not surprised to see a dip in the proportion of small businesses that are predicting growth in the run-up to Christmas, although the fall was less severe than may have been expected."

The figures show that the percentage of UK small businesses in all sectors predicting growth hit its lowest level in two years (31%).

They suggest a slight drop in growth predictions on last quarter (34%) and a bigger fall on this time last year (37%) - a time when the country was still coping with Covid restrictions.

In addition, 18% of small businesses fear they will contract or struggle to survive over the next three months, Novuna's figures suggest.

These figures have gradually risen quarter-on-quarter through 2022 and the percentage of small businesses fearing for the future is now at its highest level since January 2021.