Gertrude has been named as the next storm to bring a risk of disruptive windy weather to the UK.
On Thursday night, a deepening area of low pressure moving in from the Atlantic on a powerful jet stream will pass close to the north of Scotland. This will bring gales or severe gales across northern Britain, with the Northern Isles likely to experience a period of storm force winds for a time. These winds have the potential to cause disruption with possible impacts to transport and power supplies and a risk of some structural damage.
Forecast chart for midnight on Friday 29th January 2016 Forecast chart for midnight on Friday 29th January 2016
The Met Office has issued amber 'be prepared' Severe weather warnings for wind for the Northern Isles, western and southern Scotland, the far north of England and Northern Ireland.
West to southwesterly gales are expected to develop during the early hours of Friday with gusts of 60-70 mph widely, possibly reaching 80 mph over exposed coasts and over and to the lee of high ground. People should be prepared for the likelihood of difficult driving conditions and disruption to travel. Some structural damage is also possible, as well as disruption to power supplies.
Over the Northern Isles storm force winds are likely to develop with gusts of 70-80 mph and they may occasionally reach 9 0mph. People should be prepared for dangerous conditions including structural damage and debris, disruption to power supplies and widespread disruption to transport.
In addition to the strong winds, large waves are also expected around western coasts. Heavy rain and surface water will provide additional hazards as an active cold front brings squally conditions for a time as it moves eastwards through the morning.
The winds should ease off later on Friday, with a brief colder spell setting in across Scotland bringing snow showers to low levels. With winds strengthening for a time again overnight there is the risk of blizzard conditions, particularly over higher ground in the north of Scotland.
Chief Operational Meteorologist, Paul Gundersen said: "A rapidly deepening area of low pressure is expected to bring a spell of severe weather across northern Britain on Friday.
"There remains some uncertainty over the exact track and intensity of the storm, so people are urged to keep up to date with the latest UK forecast and Severe weather warnings so that they can prepare for the weather. However, there is higher confidence now in the likelihood of a period of very strong winds early on Friday with a spell of storm force winds across the Northern Isles."
Looking ahead, the very changeable weather will continue through the weekend and into next week with further rain, snow and winds likely to bring a chance of disruption at times.
A spokesperson for TransportNI said: "TransportNI staff are on standby to deal with the severe weather conditions which winter can bring.
"Winds of this strength have the capacity to bring down trees and lead to high waves along the coast. We would urge the public to take care when they are out on the roads and to expect potential disruption during the morning rush hour."
Scotland's Transport Minister Derek Mackay said: "We are expecting some very difficult weather conditions on Friday morning. Winds of this severity bring a high risk of disruption, leading to cancelled ferries, train services and restrictions or closures on bridges. The gale force winds will also make high-sided vehicles particularly prone to being blown over.
"We are in regular contact with the transport operators regarding the situation. They do not take the decision to cancel services lightly but safety is paramount.
"Everything possible is being done to try to mitigate the impact of the conditions with experts working alongside each other at our Traffic Scotland National Control Centre.
"Before heading out, people need to consider the conditions. They should listen to radio reports, visit the Traffic Scotland website or twitter feed and take note of the latest police advice."
Andrew Clark, NFU Director of Policy, said staff in the affected regions are monitoring the situation, and offering help and advice.
“We send our sympathies to the people whose homes and land have been hard-hit by serious flooding in parts of northern England and Wales," he added.
The NFU welcomes a lot of the pragmatic decisions government agencies such as the Environment Agency and the RPA have taken to allow farmers to focus on the flood recovery operation. However, as part of a wider package of measures, we are also asking for BPS part-payments to address cash flow issues, and lenient inspections by the RPA.
