SAC Estimates Organic Beef, Lamb and Grain Output for 2005-2006

Between July 2005 and June 2006, organic producers in Scotland will produce

approximately 4900 head of finished organic cattle, 84000 prime organic lambs and

approximately 17000 tonnes of organic grains and pulses. These are just some of the

findings of a survey of organic producers in Scotland undertaken as part of the SAC

Organic Market Link (OML) project. 91% of organic producers in Scotland were

accounted for in the survey, which is now in its second year.

For the first time, this year, information on the availability of organic store stock in

Scotland was also obtained and showed that just over 3000 head of store cattle and/or

weaned calves and 21100 store lambs were available between July 2005 and June

2006.

SAC Organic Market Link Coordinator, Caroline Bayliss, points out the benefits of this

information to organic producers, processors and marketing outlets,

"Information gathered through the OML survey has allowed direct farmer to farmer

trading for grains, pulses and store stock to develop. It has demonstrated continuity of

supply and has given confidence to two of Scotland's volume processors to get their

beef lines up and running in Scotland . This is fundamental for processors and multiple

retailers when deciding to turn on new market outlets for Scottish organic producers. In

addition, the results have also provided pointers to organic producers in terms of

making production decisions

"In both years, the survey saw an excellent response rate from Scottish organic

producers. As data gathered has proved to be so valuable SAC intend to repeat this

survey again in 2006."

Further Information

Beef Cattle

As in the previous year, there is a relatively consistent monthly supply of finished beef

cattle being produced in Scotland, varying from a low of 300 head in June to a high of

500 head in February. The main areas of organic beef production in Scotland are again

similar to last year; Aberdeenshire, Dumfries & Galloway and Perthshire. More than

80% of producers stated that they intend either to produce similar numbers of finished

organic beef cattle in future or to increase production. However, although there is a

consistent supply throughout the year, the current level of supply is insufficient to meet

market demand. The multiple retailers are currently reporting significant growth in

organic beef sales; Sainsburys report organic beef sales at a record level with year on

year growth of over 110%. Tesco report year on year growth for organic beef of 50%.

Scottish organic beef producers need to increase production significantly to satisfy this

growth in demand.

Sheep

The survey results again highlighted the seasonal nature of organic sheep production in

Scotland, with over 69% of organic finished lambs being ready for market between

August and December. Clearly this creates marketing difficulties, as there is an

oversupply in the back end of the year and insufficient numbers of finished lambs being

produced in the spring and early summer to meet the current market demand. The

quieter period from February to June has estimated numbers ranging from a high of

approximately 4000 head to a low of less than 2000 head per month. Producers must

find a way of evening out production. Some organic farmers (if their production system

allows) could meet this deficit by lambing early (February) and marketing spring lambs

in June/July or by lambing late (April/May) and retaining their hoggets through to the

January to June period.

The Borders is where organic prime lamb production is most concentrated in Scotland;

although Perthshire, Aberdeenshire, Lothians and Dumfries & Galloway also produce a

large amount of organic prime lamb. Most producers intend to produce similar

numbers of prime organic lamb during the next couple of years. A few producers also

intend to increase their production marginally, therefore prime organic lamb production

in Scotland should remain fairly stable over the next couple of years. However, it

remains to be seen whether lamb finishers have taken into account the fact that many

store lamb producers have left the organic sector. A recent study of Scottish organic

producers at the end of 2005 by MSc student Tony Clay (SAC student & SOPA

inspector) suggested that 75-80% of those leaving the Scottish organic sector were hill

farmers. This will undoubtedly lead to reduced prime lamb numbers because of the

stratified sheep production system in Scotland.

Grains and Pulses

Harvest 2004 saw 14900 tonnes of organic grains and pulses being produced in

Scotland, and of this approximately 32% was retained by the producer for home

feeding, with the remainder available for trading. Total organic grain and pulse

production from harvest 2005 increased to approximately 17100 tonnes. However, the

producer retained more than 56% of this for home use, as a result of changes in the

organic feeding standards which were introduced in August 2005.

During 2004 oats was the main grain crop grown in Scotland, with just over 5000 tonnes

being produced. However, following disappointing prices (£90 per tonne in 2004) less

oats was grown in 2005 and output was down by 1200 tonnes. The price consequently

increased to £120 - £125 per tonne at harvest 2005. A number of producers switched to

barley and wheat. More barley (approx. 4900 tonnes) and wheat (approx. 4600 tonnes)

was produced in 2005 than during the previous year but again much of this was

retained for home use resulting in marked shortages for trading. Just over 2000 tonnes

of pulses (peas and beans) were produced in 2005, a 25% increase on the previous

year. Because of the limited amount of grain in stock and continuing strong demand,

prices should remain strong and continue to hold throughout the forthcoming harvest. In

response to the marked shortages, for the first time many in the grain trade are offering

forward contracts and prices.