Calum Findlay, Gleadell’s fertiliser manager, comments on fertiliser markets:
Urea
The Egyptian government has tentatively notified indigenous producers of urea that an export tax, as high as $100/mt, will be considered unless the manufacturers comply fully with their requests for allocations of urea for the domestic market.
A duration of up to six months has been suggested for the possible taxation which follows several weeks of civil unrest and gas supply problems. Market values firmed immediately by $15–20/tonne following this news, and producers elsewhere are now watching developments closely.
The market certainly feels as though it bottomed out last week and fresh buying interest from Europe and South America has surfaced. Although here in the UK, buying interest remains at low levels. Prilled urea values have also corrected this week following the lead taken by Granular.
Ammonium Nitrate
Ammonium nitrate in the UK continues to move at a slow pace, reflecting the drilling progress made to date. Values remain range bound, and prices for product can be seen on farm at similar levels to previous weeks with no real movements. However, moving into January, values do move up as manufacturers in Europe can see supplies are tight and volumes purchased to date remain well behind a normal year. Once spring arrives and buyers return to the market do not be surprised to see a run-up in prices at some stage, demand may well outstrip supply.
Phosphate and Potash
Both these markets remain quiet as values continue to trade sideways. Little or no demand is now expected before January and, with an increase in spring sown crops and sales of straight P and K well down this autumn, the demand for spring NPK fertilisers is forecast to increase. Applied in the spring these are very effective when used to balance P and K indices, especially as a granular compound where the correct fertiliser can be applied in the right place at the right time.
