Chicago Reports
02-10-2014 09:59 AM | Chicago Reports
01/10/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans put in a new contract low before rebounding to finish the day with modest gains. FCStone raised its US 2014 soybean yield estimate to 48.4 bu/acre, up from 47.6 bu/acre previously and the USDA's current 46.6 bu/acre forecast. Given that the USDA said yesterday that last year's yield was 44 bu/acre, then a figure of 48+ this year is plausible given the improved weather scenario. FCStone now have production at 4.066 billion bushels versus the USDA's September estimate of 3.913 billion. "Today’s price action seemed to be another breather pause in an otherwise bearish market. Harvest has just begun and based on yield reports the producer if very undersold," said Benson Quinn Commodities. They noted that Goldman Sachs pegged the 3-6 month US soybean price at $8/bushel. Goldman also see US 2014/15 soybean ending stocks rising to a bountiful 456 million bushels versus the record tight 92 million at the end of 2013/14 that the USDA presented us with yesterday. Thailand are tendering for up to 430,000 MT of optional origin soymeal for Jan-June shipment. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are around 700 TMT to 1 MMT. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.16 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.25, up 3 3/4 cents; Oct 14 Soybean Meal closed at $305.30, up $0.70; Oct 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.66, up 39 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with nominal gains. FCStone estimated the 2014 US corn crop at a huge 14.958 billion bushels based on an average yield of 178.4 bu/acre. Their previous production estimate was 14.595 billion and the USDA's September figure was 14.395 billion. Their previous yield estimate was 174.1 bu/acre and the USDA's September figure was 171.7 bu/acre. Goldman Sachs said that corn prices would hit $3.00/bushel in the 3-6 month time frame. They have 2014/15 US corn ending stocks estimated at 2.278 billion bushels versus the USDA's 2013/14 ending stocks estimate of 1.236 billion. "Today’s pause from the downtrend seems a little premature to be called a consolidation for a variety of reasons. One being that only 12% of the crop had been harvested as of Sunday night and reports of extraordinary yields have not stopped being reported," said Benson Quinn Commodities. All eyes are now firmly fixed on next Friday's WASDE report from the USDA. The Energy Dept reported US weekly ethanol production was down 8k barrels/day versus the week previously. Trade estimates for the USDA weekly export sales report tomorrow are 650-900 TMT. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.21 1/4, up 1/2 cent; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.34, up 1/2 cent.

Wheat: The wheat market closed narrowly mixed. Egypt's GASC bought two cargoes of French wheat in their tender, with the price reportedly paid beating Russian offers by around $10/tonne. US SRW wheat, which was successful in the last tender, wasn't offered this time round. Morocco bought 9,000 MT of US soft wheat for Dec shipment. Goldman Sachs reportedly pegged US wheat prices at $4.50/bushel in the 3 to 6 month time frame. The USDA attaché in Brazil estimated the country's 2014/15 wheat crop at 7.5 MMT, up 30% versus 2013/14. Brazil were a featured buyer of US wheat last season due to the shortfall in their own, and neighbouring Argentina's, wheat crop. Ukraine's Ag Minister estimated the 2014 grain crop there at a record 64.4 MMT, up from a previous estimate of 60.0 MMT and compared to 63 MMT last year. How they will achieve that, given the loss of Crimea and that some crops in the Lugansk and Donetsk region are expected to go unharvested due to the fighting there remains to be seen. UkrAgroConsult estimated the Ukraine grain crop at a more realistic looking 57.4 MMT earlier in the week. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for wheat are in the region of 400-600 TMT. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.79, up 1 1/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.57 1/2, down 1/2 cent; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.31 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents.

01-10-2014 09:39 AM | Chicago Reports
30/09/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, despite the USDA cutting Sep 1 stocks to just 92 million bushels, down 38 million from their previous estimate and the tightest in over 40 years. That came even with a 0.7 bu/acre increase in yields in 2013, and a corresponding 69.2 million bushel rise in production last year to 3.358 billion bushels. "This surprise offered the producer some opportunities during the session to sell beans higher if they were paying close attention because at the end of the day big yield reports and an expanding (2014/15) balance sheet had the market closing in the red," said Benson Quinn Commodities. Dollar strength was also a negative influence again today, they added. AgroConsult estimated Brazil’s 2014/15 bean crop at a record 94.8 MMT, although down slightly on their previous forecast of 95.1 MMT. AgRural said Brazil’s 2014/15 bean crop was 2% planted as of Friday versus 1% a year ago. Good early progress has been made in Parana where soil moisture is said to be abundant. Dr Cordonnier has the 2014/15 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 95.0 MMT, unchanged from his previous forecast. He has the Argentina bean crop estimated at 55.0 MMT, also unchanged from previously. The market appears to be far more interested in the looming record large US and South American soybean crops than looking back at how tight things were in 2013/14. A test of $9.00/bushel looks like it might be on the cards, we haven't been down there since 2009. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.13 1/4, down 10 1/4 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.21 1/4, down 11 cents; Oct 14 Soybean Meal closed at $304.60, down $3.50; Oct 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.27, down 52 points.

Corn: The corn market closed lower, with 2013/14 US ending stocks coming in 45 million bushels larger than the trade had been expecting at 1.236 billion bushels. Corn now trades at new contract lows and looking to test $3.00/bushel to the downside, that would be the lowest level on a front month since 2009. Reports of huge corn yields continue to hit the market. The USDA may reflect at least some of that in next week's WASDE report. Dr Cordonnier has the Brazilian total corn crop estimated at 75.0 MMT, with Argentina's at 22 MMT, both unchanged from his previous estimates. South Africa's CEC estimated the 2014 corn crop there at 14.307 MMT, unchanged from previously. The Ukraine corn harvest is said to be around 40% complete, with progress in Russia a little bit less than that. Ukraine new crop corn offers FOB the Black Sea are said to be around $162/tonne. Fund selling in corn was estimated at a net 5,000 contracts on the day today. "Technicals remain weak with new contract lows expected to trigger additional selling. Perhaps, there was more emphasis on the sell side due to quarter end, but there isn’t much of a case to be made on the long side," said Benson Quinn Commodities. As with beans, dollar strength was also a negative today. So too is the fact that the EU 2014 corn harvest is now underway, with a record crop expected there too. French corn growers group AGPM recently estimated the 2014 corn crop there at a record high 17.25 MMT, up 17% from last year. Some other estimates are now as high as 18 MMT. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.20 3/4, down 5 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.33 1/2, down 5 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mostly lower, pressured by corn sliding to contract lows. The USDA put 2014 US all wheat production at 2.035 billion bushels, which was almost exactly in line with the average trade estimate of 2.037 billion. Sept 1 all wheat stocks came in at 1.914 billion bushels, which was a little below the average trade guess. Egypt's GASC tendered for wheat for Nov 1-10 delivery late in the day, with the results expected tomorrow. It will be interesting to see if US wheat remains competitive versus French, Russian and Romanian offers - especially given the strength of the dollar. GASC are currently said to have only bought 355,000 MT of wheat for October delivery so far, not much more than half the 650,000 MT that they bought in October of 2013. It's unclear whether they've simply read the market well or are short of cash. The fact that they are now in the market for November suggests that it might be the latter. Russia kicked off it's 2014/15 intervention program buying 19,555 MT of a mixture of wheat and barley. Their aim is to buy 5 MMT over the coming months to replenish state-owned stocks. "Late price action (in corn) and Chicago wheat eventually gaining on corn hints at the need for a correction in that market. I expect there is a considerable position long corn/short Chicago wheat. A better correction in Chicago wheat could force liquidation of these spreads," said Benson Quinn Commodities. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.77 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.58, down 8 1/2 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.33 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents.

30-09-2014 09:59 AM | Chicago Reports
29/09/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher on month/quarter-end short covering. There may also have been some book squaring going on ahead of tomorrow's quarterly stocks report. That's expected to show Sep 1 US soybean inventories at around 126-131 million bushels. Weekly export inspections came in at a robust 687,191 MT. At an edible oils conference in India over the weekend Dorab Mistry apparently said that world soybean prices could hit new lows in January due to the large South American crop. Chicago soybean prices frequently post seasonal lows around the beginning of the year. "The fundamentals of the soybean complex say that prices should continue lower especially if record South American harvest is realized," said Benson Quinn Commodities. IMEA said on Friday that Mato Grosso's 2014 soybean planting is 1.7% complete versus 0.3% a week ago and 0.7% a year ago. They estimated Mato Grosso;s total soybean area at 8.8 million ha. Lanworth tweaked higher its forecast for the 2014 US soybean yield to 47.1 bu/acre from 47.0 bu/acre previously, and estimated production at 3.880 billion bushels, up from 3.873 billion previously. After the close the USDA said that this year's US harvest was now 10% complete versus the 5-year average of 17%. They said that 69% of the crop is dropping leaves compared to 71% on average. They raised good to excellent crop conditions 1 point from a week ago to 72% versus only 53% a year ago. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.23 1/2, up 13 1/4 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.32 1/4, up 13 1/2 cents; Oct 14 Soybean Meal closed at $308.10, up $0.90; Oct 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.79, up 87 points.

Corn: The corn market was a couple of cents firmer on what also looks like position squaring ahead of tomorrow's quarterly grain stocks report. Trade estimates for that are around 1.020-1.294 billion bushels. Weekly export inspections were 601,825 MT. Big crops get bigger is the old adage, and Lanworth agreed, raising its estimate for 2014 US corn yields to 174.9 bu/acre from 174.5 bu/acre previously. The firm now put 2014 US corn production at 14.596 billion bushels, up from its previous forecast of 14.564 billion, and a record high. "Good yields and favourable weather remain the key components offering resistance to this market," said Benson Quinn Commodities. The corn market often posts its seasonal lows in October. The USDA reported after the close that this year's US corn harvest is only 12% complete versus 23% for the 5-year average. That's considerably less progress than some had been forecasting, with around 20% done being mentioned in some quarters. It is in fact an increase of only 5 points on a week ago. Fortunately the 6-10 day forecast is reasonably warm and dry. The USDA left good to excellent crop conditions unchanged on a week ago at 74%. They said that 60% of the crop is mature versus 70% for the 5-year average and that the crop is 96% dented, which is one point behind the norm at this time. Ukraine said that they'd harvested 5 MMT of corn so far, with the Russian harvest standing at 4.3 MMT to date. The UAE bought 120,000 MT of soft wheat, 15,000 MT of hard wheat, 40,000 MT of corn and 30,000 MT of feed barley for Feb-May shipment over the weekend. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.25 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.38 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed higher on all three exchanges. "Pre-report trading in US wheat futures saw a round of profit-taking overnight and a nice recovery from lower trade early in the session," said Benson Quinn. Trade estimates for tomorrow's Sept 1 US all wheat stocks are around 2.004 to 2.075 billion bushels. The USDA will also report on US wheat production. Trade estimates for all wheat are averaging 2.037 billion bushels. The range of estimates are 2.004-2.075 billion versus the USDA's August estimate of 2.030 billion and the 2013 all wheat crop of 2.130 billion. Weekly export inspections came in at a fair 537,647 MT. Taiwan seeks 80,000 MT of US milling wheat for Nov-Dec shipment and Oman are tendering for 60,000 MT of what is expected to be German or Russian wheat for Jan shipment. Russian wheat prices are said to be in decline, catching up with cheaper offers out of Europe and the US. SovEcon pegged FOB prices for Russian wheat with 12.5 percent protein in the deep-water ports on the Black Sea at $237/tonne, down $8.50 on the week, according to Reuters. ABARES estimated Australia’s 2014/15 wheat crop at 24.234 MMT versus 27 MMT a year ago. After the close the USDA said that this year's US spring wheat harvest is winding down at 94% done, up from 86% a week ago, but 2 points behind the 5-year average. Winter wheat planting is 43% done versus 25% a week ago and 36% on average at this time. The crop is 14% emerged, which is 2 points ahead of the average. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.81 1/4, up 7 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.66 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.40, up 6 3/4 cents.

30-09-2014 09:39 AM | Chicago Reports
29/09/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher on month/quarter-end short covering. There may also have been some book squaring going on ahead of tomorrow's quarterly stocks report. That's expected to show Sep 1 US soybean inventories at around 126-131 million bushels. Weekly export inspections came in at a robust 687,191 MT. At an edible oils conference in India over the weekend Dorab Mistry apparently said that world soybean prices could hit new lows in January due to the large South American crop. Chicago soybean prices frequently post seasonal lows around the beginning of the year. "The fundamentals of the soybean complex say that prices should continue lower especially if record South American harvest is realized," said Benson Quinn Commodities. IMEA said on Friday that Mato Grosso's 2014 soybean planting is 1.7% complete versus 0.3% a week ago and 0.7% a year ago. They estimated Mato Grosso;s total soybean area at 8.8 million ha. Lanworth tweaked higher its forecast for the 2014 US soybean yield to 47.1 bu/acre from 47.0 bu/acre previously, and estimated production at 3.880 billion bushels, up from 3.873 billion previously. After the close the USDA said that this year's US harvest was now 10% complete versus the 5-year average of 17%. They said that 69% of the crop is dropping leaves compared to 71% on average. They raised good to excellent crop conditions 1 point from a week ago to 72% versus only 53% a year ago. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.23 1/2, up 13 1/4 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.32 1/4, up 13 1/2 cents; Oct 14 Soybean Meal closed at $308.10, up $0.90; Oct 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.79, up 87 points.

Corn: The corn market was a couple of cents firmer on what also looks like position squaring ahead of tomorrow's quarterly grain stocks report. Trade estimates for that are around 1.020-1.294 billion bushels. Weekly export inspections were 601,825 MT. Big crops get bigger is the old adage, and Lanworth agreed, raising its estimate for 2014 US corn yiels to 174.9 bu/acre from 174.5 bu/acre previously. The firm now put 2014 US corn production at 14.596 billion bushels, up from its previous forecast of 14.564 billion, and a record high. "Good yields and favourable weather remain the key components offering resistance to this market," said Benson Quinn Commodities. The corn market often posts its seasonal lows in October. The USDA reported after the close that this year's US corn harvest is only 12% complete versus 23% for the 5-year average. That's considerably less progress than some had been forecasting, with around 20% done being mentioned in some quarters. It is in fact an increase of only 5 points on a week ago. Fortunately the 6-10 day forecast is reasonably warm and dry. The USDA left good to excellent crop conditions unchanged on a week ago at 74%. They said that 60% of the crop is mature versus 70% for the 5-year average and that the crop is 96% dented, which is one point behind the norm at this time. Ukraine said that they'd harvested 5 MMT of corn so far, with the Russian harvest standing at 4.3 MMT to date. The UAE bought 120,000 MT of soft wheat, 15,000 MT of hard wheat, 40,000 MT of corn and 30,000 MT of feed barley for Feb-May shipment over the weekend. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.25 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.38 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed higher on all three exchanges. "Pre-report trading in US wheat futures saw a round of profit-taking overnight and a nice recovery from lower trade early in the session," said Benson Quinn. Trade estimates for tomorrow's Sept 1 US all wheat stocks are around 2.004 to 2.075 billion bushels. The USDA will also report on US wheat production. Trade estimates for all wheat are averaging 2.037 billion bushels. The range of estimates are 2.004-2.075 billion versus the USDA's August estimate of 2.030 billion and the 2013 all wheat crop of 2.130 billion. Weekly export inspections came in at a fair 537,647 MT. Taiwan seeks 80,000 MT of US milling wheat for Nov-Dec shipment and Oman are tendering for 60,000 MT of what is expected to be German or Russian wheat for Jan shipment. Russian wheat prices are said to be in decline, catching up with cheaper offers out of Europe and the US. SovEcon pegged FOB prices for Russian wheat with 12.5 percent protein in the deep-water ports on the Black Sea at $237/tonne, down $8.50 on the week, according to Reuters. ABARES estimated Australia’s 2014/15 wheat crop at 24.234 MMT versus 27 MMT a year ago. After the close the USDA said that this year's US spring wheat harvest is winding down at 94% done, up from 86% a week ago, but 2 points behind the 5-year average. Winter wheat planting is 43% done versus 25% a week ago and 36% on average at this time. The crop is 14% emerged, which is 2 points ahead of the average. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.81 1/4, up 7 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.66 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.40, up 6 3/4 cents.

28-09-2014 16:19 PM | Chicago Reports
26/09/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, setting contract lows and ending at the worst level for a front month since Feb 2010. The US harvest is expected to have made decent progress this week and over the weekend. The USDA will update us on just how much progress on Monday night. After that it will give us their Sept 1 US stocks numbers on Tuesday, and following that their October WASDE report two weeks today on Oct 10. Old crop soybean ending stocks (2013/14) are forecast anywhere from as low as 100 million bushels to up to 150 million versus 141 million a year ago and their 130 million estimate last month. It's 2014/15 carryout that the trade is now more interested in though. We won't get those figures until the WASDE comes out however, but these are expected to be huge - estimated at 475 million bushels in August. A report on Reuters said that China "has suspended the import approval process for a genetically modified soybean variety, citing low public acceptance of GMO food." The variety in question hasn't been named. That really could set the cat amongst the pigeons, given that their unwillingness to approve MIR 162 corn has seen US exports of the grain to China dry up. China also celebrate "Golden Week" next week, which would usually mean a slowdown in their activity. Abiove estimated Brazil’s 2014/15 soybean crop at a record 91.0 MMT, up 5.4% from the previous year. They see exports at 48 MMT, up 6.7% compared to 2013/14. They estimated Brazil’s 2014/15 soybean ending stocks at 5.78 MMT versus 3.8 MMT in 2013/14. The weekly commitment of traders report shows fund money adding to their net short position in beans. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.10 1/4, down 12 1/2 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.18 3/4, down 12 3/4 cents; Oct 14 Soybean Meal closed at $307.20, down $5.20; Oct 14 Soybean Oil closed at 31.92, down 70 points. For the week that puts front month beans down 46 3/4 cents, with meal down $16.90 and oil shedding 54 points.

Corn: The corn market closed lower on the day, and lower for the week. Corn has now closed lower for 7 out of the last 8 trading sessions. "At $2.93 per bushel, the national average cash corn price has not been this low since the week of September 21, 2009," according to Brugler Marketing. The USDA is expected to report around 20% of the 2014 US corn harvest is now complete on Monday night, up from 7% done a week ago, although that figure may be a little high I feel. The trade is running out of superlatives to describe yields this year. Few think that anything but a rise, and probably a significant one, is still on the cards compared to the USDA's 171.7 bu/acre August yield forecast. We will have to wait until Oct 10 for that. Before that, the trade is expecting a Sept 1 US corn stocks figure of an average 1.185 billion bushels on Tuesday. The range of estimates is 1.020-1.350 billion versus the Sept 1 2013 figure of 821 million. Ukraine corn prices are reported to have dropped $10/tonne in a week, basis FOB the Black Sea. ADM Germany estimated the EU-28 2014 corn crop at a record 70.46 MMT versus 64.48 MMT a year ago. "The significantly larger feed grain supply in Europe continues to put pressure on the maize price," they said. The French corn harvest is stuttering into life, at 1% complete versus zero a year ago, according to FranceAgriMer. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that corn planting there for the 2014/15 harvest was 6.4% complete, around 2 points behind last year. Mexico bought 107,188 MT of US corn, split 59,309 MT for this season and 47,879 MT for 2015/16. Taiwan’s MFIG bought 60,000 MT of Brazilian corn in a tender. Based on a Reuters survey South Africa’s 2014 corn crop is estimated at 14.39 MMT. The weekly commitment of traders report shows fund money continuing to reduce their net corn long by around 5,500 contracts for the week through to Tuesday night. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.23, down 3 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.35 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents. That puts Dec 14 down 8 1/2 cents on the week.

Wheat: The wheat market closed narrowly mixed. "A lower overnight trade and a push to new lows early in the day session developed into orderly, low volume wheat trade," said Benson Quinn Commodities. A Reuters poll estimated the Australian 2014 wheat crop at 24 MMT versus 27 MMT last year and the current USDA forecast of 25.5 MMT. The range of estimates was 23.2 MMT to 24.5 MMT, so the USDA are currently 1 MMT above the top end of trade guesses. “This, in itself, is hardly likely to be enough for the wheat price to make any sort of noticeable recovery, for the plentiful crops in the northern hemisphere, where harvesting is almost complete, have caused supply to grow considerably,” Commerzbank said. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange left their forecast for 2014 Argentine wheat plantings unchanged at 4.1 million hectares, a more than 13% increase on 3.62 million a year ago. For Tuesday's Sept 1 quarterly stocks report the average trade estimate for wheat is 1.880 billion bushels. The range of estimates are 1.707-1.980 billion and Sept 1 2013 wheat stocks were 1.870 billion. The USDA will also report on US wheat production next week. For all wheat the average trade estimate 2.037 billion bushels. The range of estimates are 2.004-2.075 billion and US 2013 all wheat production was 2.130 billion. Russia said that they'd now harvested 94 MMT of grains off 78.7% of the planned area. Wheat accounts for 56.5 MMT of the total, with almost 80% of the harvest now in. Average yields are 2.8 MT/ha this year, versus 2.44 MT/ha a year ago at this time, the Ag Ministry said. The weekly commitment of traders report shows fund money adding a net 11,662 contracts to their short position in CBOT wheat, making them now net short of a record 78,928 contracts. That leaves the market vulnerable to a corrective bounce. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.74 1/4, up 1/4 cent; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.63 3/4, down 1/2 cent; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.33 1/4, down 3 cents. For the week that puts Chicago wheat little changed, down 1/4 of a cent. Kansas wheat is up 3 1/2 versus last Friday, and Minneapolis is down 2 1/4 cents.

26-09-2014 08:09 AM | Chicago Reports
25/09/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, despite weekly export sales of almost 2.6 MMT. This was seen as "old news" as they mostly related to the recent "showcase" deal signed with a Chinese delegation a couple of weeks ago. US weather remains non-threatening. MDA CropCast left their US soybean production estimate unchanged at 3.819 billion bushels. Reuters reported that soybean planting in Brazil's Parana state at 6% complete versus only 2% a year ago, following good recent rains. Mato Grosso is only 1% done though as the dry season there has yet to break. The Brazilian Ag Ministry estimated Brazil’s 2014/15 bean crop at a record 90-96 MMT. The IGC raised their forecast for the global soybean crop in 2014/15 to a new record 310 MMT, up 6 MMT from previously. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.22 3/4, down 14 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.31 1/2, down 13 3/4 cents; Oct 14 Soybean Meal closed at $312.40, down $4.00; Oct 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.62, unchanged.

Corn: The corn market closed lower. Weekly export sales came in at 1.1 MMT, at the top end of expectations. MDA CropCast were unchanged with their forecast for this year's US corn crop at 14.426 billion bushels. The IGC raised their forecast for this year's corn crop by 1 MMT to 974 MMT, which would be 9 MMT below last season's record. Huge US corn yields are what is hanging over the market. "Unless something changes, the yield reports will continue to offer resistance. So far, 'off the charts' is the best description. While reports of yields tend to be 200+, 250+ etc, the trade never hears of yields that would drag the average down. I don’t believe news of this nature will go stale until we are deeper into harvest," said Benson Quinn Commodities. The Brazilian Ag Ministry said that they are to buy 1-1.5 MMT of domestic corn for public stocks. UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2014 corn crop at 25.9 MMT versus a previous estimate of 27.0 MMT. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.26, down 3 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.39, down 3 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mostly lower. The IGC raised their global wheat production forecast by 4 MMT from last month to an all time high 717 MMT. "The world carryover is placed at a five-year high and, with gains in the EU, US and the Black Sea region, major exporters’ stocks are expected to increase for a second successive season," they said. "Seeding of the 2015/16 northern hemisphere winter crop is underway. Total world area is tentatively projected to increase slightly year on year," they added. Weekly export sales came in at a relatively modest 396,300 MT. Qatar bought 40,000 MT of Russian origin wheat for Nov-Dec shipment. A Greek importer bought 3,000 MT of Ukrainian milling wheat for October shipment. The Max Rubner Institute said that Germany’s 2014 wheat protein content is 13.1%, unchanged from a year ago. UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2014 grain crop at 57.4 MMT versus a previous estimate of 58.5 MMT. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.74, down 6 1/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.64 1/4, unchanged; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.36 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents.

25-09-2014 09:49 AM | Chicago Reports
24/09/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small gains. There's some supportive chatter that US soybean plantings may have been lower this year than the current USDA estimate suggests. "In its acreage update released last Friday, Informa cut harvested soybean acres by 1.2 million to 82.9 million vs. USDA’s estimate of 84.1 million," noted Benson Quinn Commodities. Still, very impressive early soybean yields continue to keep being reported, so it's possible that some, if not all, of any planted shortfall could be compensated for by this. The USDA's next chance to adjust their numbers is with next month's WASDE report due Oct 10. Before that we get the Sept 1 quarterly grain stocks report due next Tuesday, Sep 30. Trade estimates for that are for soybean stocks of 126 million bushels, according to a Reuters survey. A Bloomberg survey puts the figure at 131 million. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are as high as 4 MMT+ on soybeans, largely due to the inclusion of much of last week's "showcase" deal with China to import 4.8 MMT of US beans. US weather forecasts remain non-threatening. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.36 3/4, up 1/2 cent; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.45 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents; Oct 14 Soybean Meal closed at $316.40, down $0.70; Oct 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.62, up 39 points.

Corn: The corn market essentially reversed yesterday's losses, ending the day 4 cents higher. As with soybeans, there's widespread talk of lower US corn plantings this year than the current USDA estimate. Also, as with beans, reports keep filtering through of exceptional US corn yields this year, so one may compensate for the other. US weather forecasts remain conducive to good harvest progress to be made and the firm US dollar is an inhibiting factor. The corn harvest is underway in Russia and Ukraine. Prices are now below GBP100/tonne FOB sterling equivalent in the latter. Romania said that it is expecting a second bumper corn crop in a row, with production seen at close to last season's record 11.5 MMT. Exports are also thought likely to be similar to last season's 3.4 MMT. FranceAgriMer confirmed that a much larger proportion than normal (45%) of this year's French wheat crop is only feed grade, which will be offered onto the market in direct competition to corn. France is also expecting a record corn crop this year. A Bloomberg survey shows analysts expecting Sept 1 corn stocks to be 1.191 billion bushels next week. A Reuters survey says 1.185 billion. Taiwan Sugar Corp bought 23,000 MT of US corn Nov–Dec shipment. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for corn are 500 TMT to 1 MMT. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.29 1/2, up 4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.42 1/4, up 4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market managed modest gains. "Russian harvest progress continues to point to wheat production in a range of 61 to 63 MMT," noted Benson Quinn Commodities. The USDA are currently "only" at 59 MMT. The Russian's say they have harvested 55.5 MMT in bunker weight so far off 77.2% of the intended area. Russian grain exports are showing signs of slowing. Rusagrotrans said that the country will export 3.0 MMT of grains in October, down from 3.8 MMT in September and the record 4.7 MMT shipped out in August. The October total is still ahead of last year's 2.48 MMT however. Market talk suggests that Nigeria has bought 40,000 MT of US soft red winter wheat. Ethiopia are tendering for 200,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat for Jan shipment. Japan are tendering to import 93,000 MT feed barley. Qatar are in the market for 40,000 MT of optional-origin milling wheat. Reuters reported that heavy rain in Brazil is disrupting what is forecast to be a record wheat harvest this year. The harvest has already begun in Parana state. A Bloomberg survey shows the average trade estimate for Sept 1 US wheat stocks is 1.910 billion bushels. A Reuters survey says 1.880 billion. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 350-600 TMT. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.80 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.64 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.38, up 3 1/2 cents.

24-09-2014 08:59 AM | Chicago Reports
23/09/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with little change. Oil World estimated the 2014/15 global soybean crop at 310.8 MMT versus a previous estimate of 306.7 MMT and up 9% compared to the 2013/14 production of 285.2 MMT. They have global soybean use at 292.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 290.2 MMT and compared to 2013/14 use of 274.8 MMT. That puts global soybean ending stocks at a record 89.1 MMT versus a previous estimate of 86.4 MMT and compared to a 2013/14 ending stock estimate of 70.3 MMT. They see world 2014/15 rapeseed production at 67.5 MMT versus a previous estimate of 68.7 MMT and compared to 2013/14 production of 70.0 MMT. The Argentine Ag Secretary estimated Argentina’s 2014/15 soybean planted area at 20.0 million ha, matching last year's record. "Big yield talk and perfect 2-week weather forecast weighed with early harvest yield reports coming out of MN in the 50s despite the season’s adversity while temps look to be in the 80s this weekend for SD, ND and MN," said Benson Quinn Commodities. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.36 1/4, down 2 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.43 3/4, down 2 cents; Oct 14 Soybean Meal closed at $317.10, down $2.30,; Oct 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.23, up 23 points.

Corn: The corn market closed lower. The benign weather outlook for the US will "hopefully finish off the corn crop and advance soybean harvest," said Benson Quinn. "Extended weather forecasts point towards more moisture. The 6 to 10 day forecast indicates normal to above normal temps for most of the country. Look for a drier weather profile to prevail in the eastern corn, while the western corn belt is expected to see more shower activity during this time frame," they added. Various pundits are suggesting that US farmers may ultimately have planted 2-3 million acres less corn than current USDA estimates suggest. Bumper yields may negate at least some of that loss though. The UAE are in the market for 25,000 MT of optional origin corn. Argentina's corn plantings are seen falling from 6.1 million ha to 5.6 million this year. MARS raised its forecast for EU corn yields from 7.53 MT/ha to 7.59 MT/ha. "Yield prospects for grain maize have further improved; forecasts are 12.5 % above the level of last year and 11.8% above the last five year’s average," they said. Ukraine said that their corn harvest was 17% complete at 3.43 MMT. Russia said that their corn harvest was 28% done at 3.8 MMT. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.25 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.38 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, with fresh news lacking. Russia's wheat harvest is now 76% done at 55.2 MMT in bunker weight. Winter plantings for the 2015 harvest are already quite well advanced, being completed on 10.2 million ha compared to only 7.0 million this time a year ago. Ukraine's winter plantings are also said to be going well at 2.0 million ha, or 27% of plan. Wheat accounts for the vast majority (1.94 million ha) of that area. Recent heavy rains in Ukraine have created excellent conditions for winter grain sowing, according to the state weather service. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that the country has exported 7.8 MMT of grain between July 1st – Sept 23rd, an increased of 48% from a year ago. MARS increased their forecast for EU soft wheat yields from 5.85 MT/ha to 5.88 MT/ha, a 1.1% rise compared to last year and 5.5% above the prior 5-year average. Tunisia's Ag Ministry said that the country had harvested 2.34 MMT of grains this year versus only 1.3 MMT a year ago. They said 2014/15 grain imports expected to drop by 80% in 2015. United Arab Emirates seek 107,000 MT of optional origin wheat along with 30,000 MT of feed barley. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.76, down 3/4 cent; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.62, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.34 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents.

23-09-2014 09:39 AM | Chicago Reports
22/09/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans fell to fresh 4-year lows as the US prepares to bring in a record 2014 soybean crop. Nearby cash premiums have "collapsed" according to Benson Quinn Commodities as the "processor market eyes amble harvest supplies and moves closer and closer to harvest values." The harvest is underway in some areas, in fact in Louisiana it's already past halfway at 59% complete. Mississippi and Arkansas are other states where growers have made good progress attempting to make the most of premiums available. They are 41% and 23% harvested respectively. Nationally the USDA said that this year's crop was only 3% harvested though versus 8% for the 5-year average at this time. They cut good to excellent crop ratings by one point to 71% and said that 45% of the crop is dropping leaves versus 53% on average. Weekly soybean export inspection came in at 467,684 MT. Reuters reported that China's crude oil, coal and iron ore imports are all slowing, despite declining world prices as Chinese growth tails off. There's concern that something similar could happen to soybeans. China's August soybean imports were 6 MMT, down 5% versus a year ago. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.38 1/4, down 18 3/4 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.45 3/4, down 19 1/2 cents; Oct 14 Soybean Meal closed at $319.40, down $4.70; Oct 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.00, down 46 points.

Corn: The corn market closed lower on harvest pressure. "The trade continues to leverage talk of better than expected yields and favourable weather for the bulk of the Corn Belt," said Benson Quinn Commodities. Crop development is still delayed though. The USDA said that the 2014 US corn harvest was now 7% complete versus 15% for the 5-year average. Maturity was put at 42% versus 54% on average. The crop was said to be 90% dented versus 92% normally, with good to excellent crop ratings steady at 74% (there was actually a one point shift from good into excellent). Dollar strength also remains an inhibiting factor. Weekly export inspections came in at 1,018,858 MT. A group of private Israeli buyers were said to have purchased around 70,000 MT of optional (most likely Black Sea) origin corn. EU corn prices fell to fresh 4 year lows as they prepare to also bring in a record 2014 corn crop. The ongoing MIR 162 dispute between the US and China shows little sign of getting resolved any time soon. China has turned to "non-traditional" corn suppliers like Bulgaria and Ukraine for corn, according to a report on Reuters. Chinese customs data shows that the country imported over 3.5 MMT of corn in the Jan/Aug period. August corn imports were 133,666 MT, with 112,332 MT of that coming from Ukraine. South Korea's KFA bought 60,000 MT of optional origin corn for Feb shipment. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.30 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.42 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed narrowly mixed. The news that Egypt had bought one cargo of US SRW wheat over the weekend was seen as friendly although one 55,000 MT sale is hardly a game changer. Chinese customs data shows them importing 2.7 MMT of wheat in the Jan/Aug period, a 27% increase versus 12 months previously. The USDA reported the 2014 US spring wheat harvest at 86% complete, up from 74% a week ago but still a little behind 92% for the 5-year average. Winter wheat plantings are 25% complete, a little ahead of the 5-year average of 22%. Weekly export inspections came in at 506,612 MT versus 644,818 MT during the same week last year. Cumulative year to date inspections are now running 34% behind where they were a year ago. Russia remains on target to hit or beat a 2014 wheat harvest of 60 MMT in clean weight, having brought in a crop of 54.8 MMT in bunker weight so far, with around 25% of the crop still to be cut. Interestingly they, along with Romania, were well out-priced in the GASC tender over the weekend. Winter grain plantings in Russia are well advanced at 60% complete on 9.9 million hectares. A year ago only 7.0 million had been planted at this point. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.76 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.60 1/4, unchanged; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.36 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents.

20-09-2014 14:59 PM | Chicago Reports
19/09/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed at new 4-year lows on harvest pressure and talk of stunning early US yields. Dollar strength was also a negative feature. The USDA announced 1.236 MMT of US beans sold to China under the daily reporting system. This was simply part confirmation of the showcase 4.8 MMT deal announced earlier in the week. A Safras expert said that Brazilian farmers had only sold around 10% of their 2014/15 soybean crop versus being 22% sold on new crop this time a year ago. After the close Informa revised its 2014 US soybean planted area estimate to 83.7 million acres, down 1.2 million from USDA’s 84.8 million. They forecast 2015 US plantings however rising to 87.65 million acres, a new all time high. With record large production in the US this year now looking assured, and significant increases in output from South America also thought likely to be in the pipeline early next year, 2014/15 ending stocks are already seen jumping to all-time highs. The prospect of a further near 5% rise in US plantings next year would only further add to the abundance of global soybean supplies in the following season. Weekend weather forecasts look conducive for a pick up in early US harvest activity. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.57, down 14 1/2 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.65 1/4, down 14 1/4 cents; Oct 14 Soybean Meal closed at $324.10, down $4.70; Oct 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.46, down 26 points. For week, Nov 14 beans were down 28 1/4 cents, with Oct 14 meal losing $14.40 and Oct 14 oil sliding 9 points.

Corn: The corn market beat last Thursday's 4-year closing low for a front month by a quarter of a cent. As with beans, it's harvest pressure (historically Chicago corn often doesn't bottom until October) and reports of very impressive early yields doing the damage. "Despite the corn market sliding into oversold conditions, corn charts offer very little hope with new lows for the session and all momentum studies pointing lower," said Benson Quinn Commodities. The USDA announced 375,936 MT of US corn sold to Mexico for 2014/15 shipment. Much more will be needed if we end up with a US corn crop of around 14.4-14.5 billion bushels, or even higher. Dollar strength won't help US corn make it to destinations farther afield than Mexico either. The Argentine Ag Ministry forecast all corn plantings there down 8.2% this year. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange forecast corn for grain plantings down 16%, and said that sowing of the 2014/15 crop is 4.3% done so far. Russia's corn crop is 20.7% harvested at 2.8 MMT. Ukraine's is 12% done at 2.42 MMT. Informa estimated US 2014 corn plantings at 89.3 million acres, down 2.3 million acres versus the current USDA estimate of 91.6 million. They estimated US corn plantings falling further to 87.27 million acres next year as growers turn to beans. US weather conditions over the weekend look largely beneficial for harvest activity. Last week the USDA said that nationally 4% of the crop had been harvested versus 9% for the 5-year average. They will update us on that on Monday night. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.31 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.44 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents. Dec 14 corn ended the week 7 cents lower than it began it.

Wheat: The wheat market slumped to fresh more than 4-year lows of its own. Yesterday's weekly export sales of little more than 300 TMT highlight the fact that for US wheat competition remains fierce around the globe despite recent price declines. So too does the result of this week's Egyptian tender. They are said to be tendering again to buy wheat for October 21-31 delivery over the weekend. Let's see who's willing to sharpen the pencil the most on Monday. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange left their estimate for Argentine wheat plantings unchanged at 4.1 million hectares, a 13% rise on a year ago. The Argentine Ag Ministry are even more bullish, predicting plantings up 23% at 4.5 million hectares, and saying that this area is now virtually all sown. They said that 83% of the crop is tillering and 5% already at the heading stage. The Russian wheat harvest is 73.2% complete at 53.8 MMT, with the barley crop now 85.3% cut at 19.6 MMT, according to the Ag Ministry. Kazakhstan said that their 2014 grain harvest was past halfway, at 51.4% done, producing a crop of 8.3 MMT to date. Ukraine has finished with it's wheat harvest and is now concentrating on corn. Southern Plains winter wheat areas are said to have picked up some needed moisture this week, which will be of benefit to newly planted crops there. Informa estimated US 2014 all wheat production at 2.046 billion bushels, which is 16 million above the USDA's latest figure. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.74 1/2, down 14 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.60 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.35 1/2, down 14 3/4 cents. For the week, Dec 14 Chicago wheat lost 28 cents, with Kansas down 33 cents and Minneapolis losing 42 1/2 cents.

Comments Archive
2014(187)
    - January (21)
    - February (20)
    - March (22)
    - April (21)
    - May (22)
    - June (10)
    - July (24)
    - August (21)
    - September (24)
    - October (2)
2013(254)
    - January (21)
    - February (21)
    - March (21)
    - April (22)
    - May (24)
    - June (22)
    - July (21)
    - August (21)
    - September (20)
    - October (24)
    - November (20)
    - December (17)
2012(256)
    - January (21)
    - February (20)
    - March (22)
    - April (19)
    - May (23)
    - June (23)
    - July (17)
    - August (23)
    - September (24)
    - October (22)
    - November (23)
    - December (19)
2011(67)
    - September (4)
    - October (23)
    - November (19)
    - December (21)