10 February 2016 | Online since 2003


Chicago Reports

5 February 2016 | Chicago Reports
04/02/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small losses. Weekly export sales came in at net reductions of 43,600 MT for 2015/16 - a marketing-year low - and were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Reductions were reported for unknown destinations (374,900 MT), China (55,200 MT) and Tunisia (2,700 MT). There were also new crop sales of 65,700 MT and exports of 1,141,500 MT which included China (811,100 MT), Spain (102,400 MT), the Netherlands (73,300 MT), Japan (39,900 MT), and Mexico (28,700 MT). Brazil’s Conab lowered its forecast for the country’s soy harvest to 100.9 MMT from a previous 102.1 MMT, but still a record. Mar 16 Soybeans closed at $8.74 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; May 16 Soybeans are at $8.77 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; Mar 16 Soybean Meal is at $267.60, down $2.50; Mar 16 Soybean Oil is at $31.24, up 26 points.

Corn: The corn market ended a couple of cents lower despite weekly export sales of 1,129,100 MT for 2015/16 being up 38 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average. That also beat trade expectations of 750,000 MT to 1.0 MMT. Mexico (301,400 MT), Colombia (248,300 MT), Japan (209,300 MT), South Korea (66,100 MTT), Egypt (64,700 MT) and and Peru (63,500 MT) were the main homes. There were also sales of 14,400 MT for 2016/17. Exports of 660,700 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (195,600 MT), Colombia (155,700 MT), South Korea (67,300 MT), Japan (64,700 MT), Egypt (64,700 MT), Peru (38,500 MT), and Guatemala (26,700 MT). Conab estimated Brazil's all corn crop at 83.3 MMT, up from its 82.3 MMT estimate in January and versus the USDA's January forecast of 81.5 MMT. Private Israeli buyers were reported to have purchased 80,000 MT of optional origin, probably Black Sea, corn in a tender. Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.68 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents; May 16 Corn closed at $3.73 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower across the three exchanges. Weekly export sales of only 66,200 MT were a new marketing-year low, and down 78 percent from the previous week and 74 percent from the prior 4-week average. To put that into perspective the largest buyer was Yemen (32,000 MT). Net sales of 87,800 MT for 2016/17 were a bit better. Exports of 230,300 MT were less than stellar once more, being down 26 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were South Korea (53,400 MT), the Philippines (36,600 MT), Japan (33,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (27,600 MT), Mexico (24,500 MT), and Honduras (19,600 MT). Again all of this re-iterates how difficult the US is finding export homes for wheat, and the sort of orders/destinations that they are having to pick through. StatsCanada reported Canadian all-wheat stocks as of Dec 31 at 20.7 MMT, down 12 percent from a year ago and below the trade estimate of 21.8 MMT. South Korea's MFG were reported o have booked 65,000 MT of Argentine feed wheat at @$180/tonne C&F for March shipment. Mar 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.72 3/4, down 7 1/4 cents; Mar 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.59 3/4, down 8 3/4 cents; Mar 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.96, down 6 cents.



4 February 2016 | Chicago Reports
03/02/15 -- General: China's state-owned ChemChina agreed a $43 billion bid for Swiss seeds and pesticides group Syngenta today, according to Reuters. It would be "The largest ever foreign purchase by a Chinese firm, announced by both companies, will accelerate a shake-up in global agrochemicals," reports the article. How does this affect China's stance on GMO's? And will it fast-track their approval for a widespread usage in China? It doesn't read bullish at first glance that's for sure.

Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, helped on their way by reports that Informa had raised their production estimate for Argentina to 60 MMT, up 1.5 MMT last month. They cut Brazil by 0.9 MMT to 100.5 MMT. Both forecasts are higher than the USDA's current 57 MMT and 100 MMT estimates released last month though. Brazil's Conab are expected to release revised production estimates of their own tomorrow. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans see these continuing to slip seasonally to 400,000 to 650,000 MT. Meal estimates range from 100,000 to 250,000 MT. Chinese New Year begins Monday so their import needs normally start to drop off around now. For the record this upcoming year is year of the monkey - generally considered to be one of the more unlucky ones - perhaps not just what you needed to hear. A Monsanto press release said they have received approval from the Chinese government to import its RR2 Xtend soybeans. Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.76 3/4, down 9 1/2 cents; May 16 Soybeans settled at $8.79 3/4, down 9 cents; Mar 16 Soybean Meal settled at $270.10, down $4.50; Mar 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.98, up 19 points.

Corn: The corn market closed a touch lower, dragged down by beans. Informa raised their production estimates for both Brazil and Argentina. In Brazil, total production is now pegged at 81.6 MMT versus a previous figure of 81.3 MMT. In Argentina they now go for 26 MMT, up sharply from only 22 MMT last month. The USDA were at 81.5 MMT and 25.6 MMT respectively a month ago. They get a shot at revising those estimates higher next Tuesday. Conab are expected to tweak their Brazilian numbers tomorrow. This year looks like one of those difficult years where yields could easily be spread between "disaster" and "bin-buster" - and not separated by too much distance geographically either, so coming up with an overall overage will be tricky in both Argentina and Brazil. Certainly the latter has been making a new name for itself on the export front, shipping out a record 6.3 MMT of corn in December, up 32% versus November and 85% higher than Dec 2014. The weak Brazilian real and low global freight rates will be helping that cause. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 750,000 MT to 1.0 MMT. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.71, down 1 1/2 cents; May 16 Corn settled at $3.76, down 1 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The market closed a few cents higher. Egypt reportedly asked Russia for preferrential payment terms on future wheat purchases. It is also being suggested that GASC will now accept wheat containing ergot levels of up to 0.05% as opposed to "zero" which met with a pretty emphatic response by global wheat exporters yesterday. "Zero ergot equals zero offers," one trader wittily said. StatsCanada are due out tomorrow with their latest Canadian numbers., with trade estimates putting these (as at Dec 31) around 21.8 MMT. US weekly export sales hopes remain a modest 200,000 to 400,000 MT. Informa estimated the Indian wheat crop at 87 MMT, some way below the USDA's current 88.9 MMT forecast. The USDA are out with their February WASDE report next Tuesday, and ABARES are also due with their Australian production numbers the same day. The UDSA's FAS in Russia now has their final 2015 wheat production estimate at 61 MMT, up 3% versus the previous year. Barley output is seen down 15% at 17.1 MMT and corn production up 12.7% to a record 12.7 MMT. Total Russian grain and wheat exports in 2015/16 are expected at similar levels to those last season. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.83 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.78 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.05 3/4, up 4 cents.



3 February 2016 | Chicago Reports
02/02/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 7-8 cents firmer in Turnaround Tuesday trade. ADM said that Argentine growers had been slow to sell stored soybeans, having been a bit more interested in gearing up their efforts on corn and wheat following the December Macri election victory. This is backed up by last week's government numbers showing old crop beans at "only" 85.8% committed. Their soybean hoard is estimated in the range of 12 MMT by ADM, selling of which so far has been "disappointing". This may be because Macri reduced the export duty to zero on corn and wheat but only by 5 points down to 30% on beans. The USDA's FAS in Brasilia estimated this year's soybean crop at 98 MMT, a record but 2 MMT short of the current official Washington figure. They see exports at 55 MT versus 56.65 MMT out of Washington. Oil World estimated the global soymeal crop at a record 216.1 MMT in 2015/16, up 5.8% on a year ago. They expect the downwards price trend in meal to continue, and appear to see meal as the weakest leg of the three in the complex across the coming months. Mar 16 Soybeans closed at $8.86 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents; May 16 Soybeans closed at $8.88 3/4, up 6 1/2 cents; Mar 16 Soybean Meal closed at $274.60, up $3.60; Mar 16 Soybean Oil closed at 30.95, up 16 points.

Corn: Corn closed around a cent or two firmer. NYMEX crude settling back below $30/barrel was a drag, but weather conditions in South America are showing subtle signs of changing, possibly suggesting that El Nino strength is wavering. "Weather conditions have been trending drier in Argentina and South Brazil recently reflecting a gradual weakening of the El Nino. Ordinarily a heavy rain maker in the summer growing season December-February. However, areas of dryness have recently developed in Buenos Aires, Cordoba and Santa Fe - the 3 leading farm provinces. Conditions have grown very dry in the past 15 days in Argentina, especially Buenos Aires, the leading farm province and top producer of soybeans and corn. The 30-day rainfall map shows less severe dryness. This suggests that Argentina crops are not in serious trouble yet, still capable of making a good yield if generous rainfall develops soon. January is the main month for rainfall in corn, the period when the crop is pollinating and setting kernels on the ear. The heavier the rainfall, the better. Month-to-date rainfall has been modestly below average not indicating severe cuts in corn production. A bumper harvest is not likely, either," say Martell Crop Projections. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.72 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents; May 16 Corn settled at $3.77 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with little change, failing to hold onto earlier rally attempts. The move higher was probably linked to Egypt who picked up no sellers at all willing to match their new zero tolerance on ergot in their latest tender requirements. The bottom line is that whatever Egypt settle on as a new realistic minimum, other countries besides the US will be able to match it. Other countries with generally cheaper freight and weaker domestic currencies than the US dollar too. So this isn't really a potential door opener for the US whichever way you look at it. Looking at US winter wheat conditions, the USDA have raised good to excellent in Kansas by 1 point from a month ago to 55%, which is 9 points ahead of this time last year. Illinois, with 65% of winter wheat in good or excellent condition at the end of January, up from 58% in late December. Oklahoma fell from 77% to 74% - although that's still the highest rating for the end of January since at least 2010. Japan are in the market for 141 TMT of US, Canadian and Australian wheat for Mar/Apr shipment. Bangladesh are tendering for 50,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat. Mar 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.75 1/4, unchanged; Mar 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.65 1/4, down 1 /12 cents; Mar 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.95 3/4 cents down a cent.



2 February 2016 | Chicago Reports
01/02/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small losses. Weekly export inspections of 1.153 MMT were a bit better than expected (800 TMT to 1 MMT), underlying the recent theme. The USDA reported a 167 million bu December US soybean crush versus expectations of 167.7 million. In Brazil, the Mato Grosso soybean crop is said to be 8% harvested compared to 11% last year, with yields improving after a lower start. Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.80 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents; May 16 Soybeans settled at $8.82 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents; Mar 16 Soybean Meal settled at $271.00, down $1.40; Mar 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.76, down 12 points.

Corn: The corn market also closed marginally weaker. Weekly export inspections of 681,807 MT were in line with trade ideas. YTD inspections however are still 20.4% smaller than they were in 2014/15 at this time. News out of China’s industrial sector continues to underscore the economic weakness. Little of what corn they do import in 2015/1 is likely to be of US origin. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.71 1/4, down 3/4 cent; May 16 Corn settled at $3.75 3/4, down 1 cent.

Wheat: The wheat market closed around 4-5 cents lower. Weekly export inspections of 281,936 MT were in line with what was expected, and offer little great hope for a pick up in US export activity any time soon. Israel is tendering for 105,000 MT of optional origin wheat. Egypt formally rejected a cargo of French wheat for ergot. GASC tendered for wheat with the results expected tomorrow. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.80 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.76 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.00 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents.



31 January 2016 | Chicago Reports
29/01/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher on the day, but little changed for the week. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on beans found: Bullish 2; Bearish 17; Neutral 10; Soybean traders are the most most bearish since August, they said. The harvest there is slowly underway, but should still be record large apart from one or two areas of concern. AgRural estimated Brazil soybean harvest at 4 percent complete compared to the previous year period at 6 percent. US soybean sales meanwhile are starting to tail off. Today's delayed weekly export sales report had these at 647,800 MT for 2015/16, down 34 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. China was the largest buyer (296,800 MT). Exports of 1,323,200 MT were down 16 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destination was China (764,200 MT). Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.82 1/4, up 14 1/2 cents; May 16 Soybeans settled at $8.84 1/2, up 14 cents; Mar 16 Soybean Meal settled at $272.40, up $5.50; Mar 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.88, up 19 points. For the week, Mar 16 beans rose 1 3/4 cents, with Mar 16 meal down 10 cents and Mar 16 oil up 44 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with decent gains on the day, and a couple of cents firmer for the week. Weekly export sales of 817,000 MT for 2015/16 were down 29 percent from the previous week, but up 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. Mexico (304,900 MT) and Japan (245,800 MT) were the largest homes. Net sales of 38,400 MT for 2016/17 were also reported for Mexico (37,600 MT) and Nicaragua (800 MT). Exports of 648,700 MT were up 14 percent from the previous week and 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (193,100 MT), Mexico (99,400 MT), Peru (88,800 MT), Colombia (78,300 MT), Saudi Arabia (77,000 MT), South Korea (64,700 MT) and Honduras (23,200 MT). A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on corn found: Bullish 6; Bearish 12; Neutral 11. Taiwan has tendered for 65,000 MT of optional origin corn. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.72, up 6 1/2 cents; May 16 Corn settled at $3.76 3/4, up 6 1/4 cents. For the week, Mar 16 was up 1 3/4 cents and May 16 was 2 cents higher.

Wheat: The market closed decent gains on the day, and small ones for the week. Weekly export sales of 294,200 MT for delivery in marketing year 2015/16 were down 19 percent from the previous week, but up 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. That tells you just how bad some recent weeks have been. Increases were reported for Japan (153,600 MT), Indonesia (60,100 MT), South Korea (53,300 MT), Mexico (49,600 MT), Nigeria (47,800 MT), Vietnam (13,700 MT) and Costa Rica (12,600 MT). Net sales of 52,800 MT for 2016/2017 were reported for the United Arab Emirates (25,000 MT), Japan (25,000 MT) and Italy (2,800 MT). Exports of 311,400 MT were up 21 percent from the previous week, but down 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (90,400 MT), Colombia (50,000 MT), Mexico (41,200 MT), Ecuador (29,400 MT), the Philippines (28,500 MT) and Nigeria (23,800 MT). Some media reports say that Russian announced there would be no wheat export duty changes, others said no decision would be made until next week. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.85, up 7 cents; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.82 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.05 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents. For the week, May 16 Chicago wheat was up 4 3/4 cents, with Kansas wheat up 1 1/2 cents and Minneapolis adding 2 1/2 cents.



29 January 2016 | Chicago Reports
28/01/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower after China cancelled a purchase for 395,000 MT of US beans for 2015/16 delivery this morning. Some are suggesting that this may have been part of the huge "showcase" deal done in late 2015 being switched to Brazil. MDA CropCast were unchanged on their global soybean production forecasts, with Brazil at 98.7 MMT and Argentina at 60.6 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that Argentine soybean planting is finished, and see production at 58 MMT, down 4.6% on a year ago. US weekly export sales are delayed until tomorrow, with these expected to come in at around 500,000 to 800,000 MT on beans as sales continue to grind seasonally lower. Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.67 3/4, down 15 1/4 cents; May 16 Soybeans settled at $8.70 1/2, down 14 3/4 cents; Mar 16 Soybean Meal settled at $266.90, down $5.60; Mar 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.69, down 18 points.

Corn: Corn closed around 3-4 cents lower, dragged down by declining soybeans. There's talk of Chinese importers having already booked 20 cargoes of corn for Q1 2016 shipment, but that almost all of that is thought to be of Ukraine origin, only 1-2 cargoes are likely to be US. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange say that corn planting there is 95% complete, on an anticipated total area of 3.1 million ha. MDA CropCast cut their global corn production estimate by 1 MMT thanks to dryness in South Africa where they now see the crop at only 6.8 MMT, down 35% versus 10.5 MMT a year ago. Tomorrow's one day delayed weekly export sales report for corn is expected to come in at around 800,000 MT to 1.0 MMT. In the EU, corn imports approved this week were 209 TMT, back into "normal" territory compared with the 941 TMT worth passed a week ago. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.65 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents; May 16 Corn settled at $3.70 1/2, down 4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. There's been no clarification out of Russia, but the market is starting to think that there will be no hinted at "tightness in restrictive measures" on wheat exports to come, but rather a relaxation of them. South Korea booked 20,000 MT of Argentine wheat and Taiwan purchased 41,300 MT of US wheat this morning, while Japan cancelled their regular weekly tender for US, Canadian, Australian wheat. MDA CropCast cut their Canadian wheat production estimate by 0.27 MMT to 25.0 MMT in 2016/17 due to reduced plantings. Russia forecast their 2016/17 grain crop at 104 MMT. Tomorrow's weekly US export sales report is estimate at around 250,000 and 400,000 MT. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that their 2015/16 wheat harvest is over at 10.3 MMT. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.78, down 4 1/4 cents; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.75 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.00 1/4, down 1 cent.



28 January 2016 | Chicago Reports
27/01/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, giving up their Turnaround Tuesday gains. There's continued talk that all is not well with Brazil's crop - even if production expectations are still at record levels. Mato Grosso's IMEA said that 30% of the state's soybean crop is rated poor to very poor, 41% average, and 29% good to excellent. "The worst rated soybeans are those that were planted in September and October because those soybeans received the full brunt of the hot and dry weather during November and December. In some of the hardest hit areas, the crop went as much as 40 days without a rain while the temperatures were very hot," says Dr Cordoniier. "The soybean harvest has started in central Mato Grosso where 40% of the state's soybeans are grown and the yields being reported are extremely variable from a low of 10 sacks per hectare (9 bu/ac) to a high of 60 sacks per hectare (52 bu/ac). The unusual thing this year is that the high and low yields may only be a few miles apart due to the irregular distribution of the rains this growing season," he adds. It would seem that the only thing we can be sure about is that the debate over exactly what size crop they do have this year could rage on for some time yet. The regular Thursday weekly export sales report from the USDA has been delayed a day until Friday due to Monday's "white-out" that closed government offices in Washington. Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.83, up 6 1/2 cents; May 16 Soybeans settled at $8.85 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents; Mar 16 Soybean Meal settled at $272.50, up $2.60; Mar 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.87, up 13 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with changes of less than a cent either way as it has very other day this week so far. This sort of price action highlights farmer reluctance to sell at these levels but also (as we have seen this week with wheat) suggests that you need some sort of "scare story" to spur some fund short-covering if you want the market up. The US Fed said that they were keeping interest rates on hold, which surprised nobody. The did however add that they would not rule out an increase to interest rates in March. That would lead to renewed dollar strength and cause subsequent damage to exports at a time when season to date corn inspections are already down 21.5% from last year. The USDA currently only forecast full season corn exports to decline 7%, so a stronger dollar isn't likely to help any of that lost ground get made up. The Energy Dept reported weekly US ethanol production had fallen 22,000 barrels/day to 961,000 barrels/day from the previous week, and the lowest level of output since late November. In Brazil, safrinha corn planting has been delayed by recent wet weather and the slow early soybean harvest. "The ideal planting window for safrinha corn generally closes about the 20th of February, although some farmers continue to plant corn until about the 10th of March," says Dr Cordonnier. That gives crops enough chance to develop and become established before the dry season kicks in during May. "By far the biggest safrinha crop in Mato Grosso is corn and farmers in the state have only planted approximately 1.3% of their intended safrinha corn crop compared to 3.1% a year earlier," he adds. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.69 1/4, unchanged; May 16 Corn settled at $3.74 1/2, also unchanged.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on what looks like profit-taking following decent gains. The trade is getting more confused by the day over the lack of clarity coming out of Russia concerning it's supposed plans to "tighten restrictive measures on grain exports" - reported earlier in the week on Reuters. Whist the market initially took this as a sign that this might mean reduced wheat exports as the government try to protect the domestic livestock sector from feed price increases, others are now saying that the duty might be decreased, or at least the level at which it kicks in altered to more accurately reflect current grain market/forex rates than those that apply at the moment. A meeting between Russian officials is scheduled for Friday to potentially clarify the matter. Elsewhere, Reuters reported that inspectors from Egypt's GASC had arrived in the Argentine port of Bahia Blanca to approve the first shipments of wheat from Argentina in more than three years in deals done late in 2015. Nobody seems sure of the fate of the French vessel that has been waiting near Egypt’s Damietta port since Dec. 21, according to Bloomberg, apparently rejected on the ground of ergot contamination. Jordan purchased 100 000 MT of hard wheat, of optional origin. Algeria were said to have bought 150,000 MT of optional origin feed barley, with French and possibly even UK material featuring in the mix. AAFC in Canada said that the country's spring wheat acreage may be down 2% this year. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.82 1/4, down 7 3/4 cents; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.78, down 9 cents; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.01 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents.



27 January 2016 | Chicago Reports
26/10/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, essentially reversing Tuesday's gains. Argentine farmers are said to be 86% sold on old crop beans (versus 78% a year ago) and 6% done on new crop (5% a year ago). "The potential for corn and soybean (production) is favorable in Argentina better even than a year ago based on the updated satellite images," say Martell Crop Projections. "We wonder if the excellent vegetation may be subject to decline. With the El Nino in a weakening phase, rainfall may taper off in February the period when rainfall matters the most for Argentina soybeans -- the influential key pod filling stage. The El Nino is a heavy rain maker for Argentina, but its gradual demise may lead to drier weather in the weeks ahead," they add. Brazilian weather is vital over the next few weeks as the crop continues through its critical pod-filling period. The 6-10 day forecast has above normal temps for much of the Brazilian soybean growing area, with normal to below normal precipitation for much of the Center-West, and South East production areas and continued above normal rainfall for the south of the country and northern Argentina. Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.76 1/2, down 4 cents; May 16 Soybeans settled at $8.78 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents; Mar 16 Soybean Meal settled at $269.90, down $2.60; Mar 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.74, up 30 points.

Corn: The corn market closed a touch lower. Argentine farmers are said to be 94% sold on old crop corn (98% a year ago) and 16% done on new crop (19% a year ago). Drought has caused irrecoverable corn crop losses in some areas of Argentina, according to the Rosario Grain Exchange. Around 8% of the planted area could be affected by temps as high as 33C and lack of rainfall, even though northern areas remain too wet. Chinese customs data show that the country imported 133,117 MT of corn in December, down 78% from Dec 2014. Total 2015 calendar year corn imports however were 4.7 MMT, up 82% on the previous year. DDGS imports in 2015 total 6.82 MMT, up 26% compared to 2014. Ukraine said that their 2015 corn crop finished up at 23.2 MMT, an 18.1% drop compared with a year previously. Algeria said that their 2015 corn harvest was 4.41 MMT, up 7.6% versus 2014. Tender news was thin today, with Asian buyers spoiled for choice between cheap Black Sea and South American supplies. The ever-strong dollar continues to hurt US export hopes. Crude oil was down again and continues to flirt with the $30/barrel area. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.69 1/4, down 1/2 cent; May 16 Corn settled at $3.74 1/2, down 1/4 cent.

Wheat: The market closed firmer, but off the intra-day highs. Wheat got support from short-covering, prompted no doubt by sudden concerns that the weakness of the Russian rouble might lead the Russian government to tighten export restrictions on grains. A short-covering rally seems to be this market's best hope at the moment. The EU's MARS unit said that sudden sharply below zero temps in late December may have caused some winter-kill damage to crops left insufficiently hardy following a very benign (up until then) autumn and early winter. "The coldest weather of the winter season has developed in Europe driving temperatures down to 20 F in Paris, France, and minus 5 F in southern Romania and Bulgaria. The cold wave was more intense in Ukraine and Russia, where an Arctic cold wave brought frigid temperatures not seen for several years," said Martell Crop Projections. Meanwhile "Temperatures in Ukraine and Russia have plummeted from a large Arctic air mass moving in from the northeast. Night minimum temperatures fell as low as minus 30 to minus 35 C (-22 F to -31 F). Temperatures this cold have not been seen in several years. Bitter cold was promoted by a thick layer of snow that radiating heat to the open sky," they added. The Argentine Ag Ministry has growers there 26.5% sold on their 2015/16 wheat versus 48.6% committed a year ago. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.90, up 3 1/4 cents; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.87, up 2 3/4 cents; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.08 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents.



26 January 2016 | Chicago Reports
25/01/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 4 cents higher. Weekly export inspections of 1.197 MMT were down on last week and the corresponding week in 2015, but still fairly decent. Marketing year to date inspections are now 11.6% smaller than 2014/15. AgRural said that the Brazilian soybean harvest in is 1.5% complete compared to 3.5% last year and 2% for the 5-year average. Top state of Mato Grosso is 3.6% harvested compared to 7.4% last year. "In the municipality of Campo Verde, which is located in southeastern Mato Grosso, 10% of the soybeans have been harvested, but another 20% of the crop has been ready for harvest for at least 15 days, but wet weather has kept the combines out of the fields," says Dr Cordonnier. Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.80 1/2, up 4 cents,; May 16 Soybeans settled at $8.81 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents; Mar 16 Soybean Meal settled at $272.50, up $4.00; Mar 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.44, down 6 points.

Corn: Corn closed with little change. Weekly export inspections came in at just shy of 600 TMT. Season to date inspections are down 21.5% from last year. Crude was back under pressure with a vengeance, which corn did it's best to ignore. Chinese New Year is just around the corner. The trade is pondering what it might do to address it's huge domestic corn surplus, and whether it might to something prior to the start of that (Feb 8)? India announced that it had bought 225,500 MT of Ukraine corn, just about as it is due to start harvesting its own crop - which suggests that the jungle drums are correct and that all is not well with that crop. A Bloomberg survey estimated the South African corn crop at 6.1 MMT, down 39% on a year ago. The Brazilian government are said to be likely to soon begin auctioning off state-owned corn stocks in the south of the country as the weak real means that exports of the grain have been exceptional, and local stocks are therefore tight. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.69 3/4, down 1/2 cent; May 16 Corn settled at $3.74 3/4, unchanged.

Wheat: The wheat market closed firmer following the Russian suggestion that it might further tighten restrictive measures on grain exports. The Russian rouble was back under pressure today as crude oil resumed it's downwards trajectory. The Russian Ag Ministry said today that the country had exported 21.34 MMT of grains so far this season (to Jan 20), a 3% reduction on a year ago. That includes just under 16 MMT of wheat, 3.3 MMT of barley and 1.9 MMT of corn. Weekly US export inspections of 187,903 MT were dull. India said that it's wheat crop was planted on 29.2 million ha, down 4% on a year ago as growers were unable to catch up with reduced sowings earlier in the season due to adverse weather conditions. The Philippines said that they'd bought 100,000 MT of optional origin feed wheat, possibly Argentine material, at $177 C&F for Apr/Jun shipment. Tunisia said that they'd bought 92,000 MT of soft wheat and 50,000 MT of feed barley, both of optional origin for Apr/May shipment. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.86 3/4, up 6 1/2 cents; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.84 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.05, up 2 cents.



24 January 2016 | Chicago Reports
22/01/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed a touch lower on the day and for the week. Weekly export sales totals are grinding seasonally lower, as you would expect, but are still decent enough. This week's bean sales of 985,100 MT for 2015/16 were down 13 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. No surprises for guessing that China (717,900 MT) was the largest home. Exports of 1,575,100 MT were up 17 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (1,024,500 MT), Germany (76,000 MT), the United Kingdom (64,100 MT), South Korea (57,600 MT), Mexico (54,600 MT) and Japan (47,300 MT). Total commitments to all destinations is still behind last year by 9%. The weekly commitment of traders report has managed money reducing their net short position in beans to 25,773 contracts for the week through to Tuesday night. The market continues to ponder over US plantings for 2016. Informa had these at a new record 85.23 million acres versus a previous estimate at 84.54 million and 82.7 million a year ago earlier in the week. Yet Farm Futures Magazine indicate plantings down 500,000 acres at 82.2 million - quite a difference. Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.76 1/2, down 2 cents; May 16 Soybeans settled at $8.77 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents; Mar 16 Soybean Meal settled at $268.50, down $3.70; Mar 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.50, up 56 points. For the week, Mar beans were down 2 1/2 cents, with Mar meal losing $2.20 and Mar oil adding 85 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 3 cents higher on the day. Weekly export sales were strong at 1,157,700 MT for 2015/16, being up 73 percent from the previous week and 91 percent from the prior 4-week average. Pre-report estimates had been for sales of 600,000 to 900,000 MT. Actual exports were average at 571,600 MT - down 10 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. There were also sales of sales of 189,000 MT for 2016/17 reported for Mexico (180,000 MT) and Japan (9,000 MT). Despite this week's strong sales, total commitments for the season to date are 26% down on where they were this time last year. Farm Futures Magazine is indicating that US corn plantings this year might come in at around 88 million acres - the same as last year. Informa were at 88.869 million acres versus a previous estimate of 88.93 million earlier in the week. The USDA's Outlook Forum at the end of February gives us some early rough indications to go on, before the prospective plantings report comes out at the end of March. The weekly commitment of traders report shows managed money its net short position in corn by 28,621 contracts for the week through to Tuesday night. EU data shows that they authorised 941 TMT worth of corn import licences this week, taking the season to date total to 8.11 MMT - some 61% up compared with a year ago. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.70 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents; May 16 Corn settled at $3.74 3/4, up 3 cents. For the week Mar 16 was 7 cents and May 16 added 7 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed on the day and with small gains for the week. Weekly export sales of 362,000 MT for delivery in marketing year 2015/16 were up 32 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from the prior 4-week average. They were also in line with modest trade expectations. US wheat sales continue to be spread among "the usual suspects": Mexico (100,100 MT), Japan (52,600 MT), the Philippines (50,100 MT), Guatemala (47,400 MT), Taiwan (40,400 MT), South Korea (34,900 MT) and Honduras (23,200 MT). Exports of 257,700 MT were down 53 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average and failed to impress. Managed money holds a slightly smaller net short in Chicago wheat that it did a week ago (-70,458 contracts). "A trough of low pressure has become entrenched in European Russia leading to an unstable environment with recurring rain and snow showers. Precipitation has been exceptionally heavy the past 2 weeks. Russia’s winter grain belt has received 1.5-2.5 inches of precipitation, a mixture of rain and heavy wet snow. That’s way more than a month’s worth of precipitation, some 2-3 times the normal amount. Ukraine has been even wetter receiving 4-6 times normal precipitation. Conditions have become too much of a good thing posing a flooding threat," say Martell Crop Projections. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.80 1/4, up 1/2 cent; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.80 3/4, down 1 cent; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.03, down 2 1/2 cents. For the week, Chicago wheat was up 6 1/2 cents, with Kansas adding 6 3/4 cents and Minneapolis gaining 5 3/4 cents.




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