Chicago Reports
20-12-2014 11:09 AM | Chicago Reports
19/12/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal closed with small losses on the day and the week. "Market makers have either stepped to sidelines ahead of the holiday or already out of office for the Christmas break. And that left us with a featureless session," said Benson Quinn. Informa forecast US 2015 soybean plantings at 88.8 million acres, which was far higher than yesterday's USDA baseline projection of only 84 million. It was also a little bit higher than their previous estimate of 88.35 million and would set a new soybean area record. Using a trendline yield of 45 bu/acre then that would give the US a crop of 3.959 billion bushels next year, a total almost identical to this year. That will follow on from what is expected to be a record Brazilian crop and at least near record Argentine production. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.30 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.38 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents; Jan 15 Soybean Meal closed at $363.50, down $1.80; Jan 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.97, up 8 points. For the week beans were down 16 3/4 cents, with meal losing $3.50 and oil slipping 33 points.

Corn: The corn market closed slightly lower on the day, but with modest gains for the week. Corn put up a decent performance today, given the weakness in wheat to end the week. "Funds were estimated sellers of 2,000 to 3,000 corn contracts, which typically wouldn’t have much effect at all. It didn’t feel like the producer was interested in selling corn ahead of the weekend," noted Benson Quinn. Informa trimmed their forecast for US corn plantings in 2015 from 88.3 million acres to 88 million, the same as the USDA gave us in yesterday's baseline projections. The USDA's figure for this season is 90.855 million, so that would be a drop of a little over 3%. A firmer tone to the crude oil market may have lent some support today. Good interest from China for US DDGS is still being reported, on top of the recently announced 900 TMT in sales, which is friendly for continued buoyant ethanol production, and subsequent domestic corn demand. The ethanol market has been doing its best to ignore the recent demise of crude oil. Mar 15 Corn closed at $4.10 1/2, down 1/2 cent' May 15 Corn closed at $4.19, down 1/2 cent. For the week, Mar 15 corn was up 3 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on the day, but higher for the week. Some are saying that this was an overdue correction, and that the rises seen earlier in the week were overdone. The market is now trying to figure out if the Russian news is fully priced in. The Russian state owned grain company are said to be due to begin buying grain for the intervention fund at the newly revised higher prices next week. It will be interesting to see how successful, or otherwise, they are. Volumes up until now have been pretty low. A new development is that "India expressed interest in offering wheat to the global market, which would very likely take place if values remain high," said Benson Quinn. They'll be harvestin again come March. Informa estimated the US all wheat acreage at 56.8 million versus the USDA's baseline projection of 56 million. Ukraine said that they'd exported 17.5 MMT of grains so far this season, including 7.8 MMT of wheat. The USDA has them down to export 10.3 MMT of wheat this season, so they've currently shipped out more than 75% of that target. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.32 1/4, down 23 cents; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.66, down 17 3/4 cents; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.48 1/4, down 12 3/4 cents. For the week that still leaves Mar 15 Chicago wheat 25 3/4 cents higher, with Kansas up 31 3/4 cents firmer and Minneapolis up 27 1/2 cents.

19-12-2014 09:09 AM | Chicago Reports
18/12/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher. Weekly export sales of more than 1 MMT were better than expected, even if 350 TMT of that total was for 2015/16 shipment. Old crop sales of 696,000 MT included 402,400 MT to China. Actual shipments were nearly 1.9 MMT, taking total commitments so far this season to 86% of the USDA's target for the season versus 79% normally. The USDA released their baseline projections, putting the US 2015 soybean planted area at 84 million acres versus private estimates of around 88 million. The Argentine Ag Ministry forecast the 2014/15 soybean planted area at 20.2 million hectares, up 2.2% on last year. They say that Argentine farmers have sold 73% of their old crop beans versus 81% a year ago, and 4.4% of their new crop against 4.8% a year ago. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.35, up 8 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.43 1/4, up 8 cents; Jan 15 Soybean Meal closed at $365.30, up $6.00; Jan 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.89, up 12 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 2-3 cents firmer. Weekly export sales of 693,500 MT for 2014/15 and 5,000 MT for 2015/16 were in line with expectations. Actual shipments of 754,000 MT were up 11 percent from the previous week and 24 percent above the prior 4-week average. Total commitments so far this season are 55% of the USDA forecast versus 56% normally. The USDA's baseline projections for next year are using a corn planted area figure of 88 million acres. The Argentine Ag Ministry forecast corn plantings this year down almost 10% at 5.5 million hectares. They said that Argentine growers have now got 91.6% of their old crop corn sold versus 84.3% a year ago. New crop sales are at 16.2% versus 6.4% a year ago. Strategie Grains forecast the EU 28 corn crop in 2015 at 67.6 MMT, a 9% drop on this year. France, Romania and Hungary will see a combined drop of 4 MMT in output, they said. Mar 15 Corn closed at $4.11, up 2 3/4 cents; May 15 Corn closed at $4.19 1/2, up 3 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed higher, although well off the overnight session highs. Weekly export sales of 476,300 MT for 2014/15 and 33,200 MT for 2015/16 were in line with trade ideas. The Russian rouble appears to have stabilised, at least for now. Reports out of there still suggest problems in obtaining the necessary phytosanitary certificates for vessels to sail."At times, the market feels like it is ready to roll over. However, it doesn’t feel like the speculative seller trusts the wheat market or what the next move in Russia could be," said Benson Quinn Commodities. The Argentine Ag Ministry forecast their 2014/15 wheat crop at 13.2 MMT, a 43.5% increase on last year. Very acceptable yields have been obtained so far, they said. They estimated the crop at 60% harvested. Strategie Grains estimated the EU 28 soft wheat crop at 140.2 MMT next year, with all wheat production at 148.1 MMT. The USDA baseline projection for US wheat plantings for the 2015 harvest is 56 million acres. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.55 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.83 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.61, up 1 1/4 cents.

18-12-2014 09:39 AM | Chicago Reports
17/12/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small gains at the end of a two-sided session. A trade delegation of Chinese buyers in Chicago were reported to have signed "showcase" deals to import 1 MMT of US soybeans. Abiove estimated Brazil’s 2014/15 bean crop at 91.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate and well below the CONAB estimate of 95.8 MMT and the USDA's 94 MMT forecast. "Weather outlooks continue to have Brazilian production areas getting adequate moisture for their crops with some press given to the drier areas in Argentina as having potential to a reduction in production," said Benson Quinn. There's some talk of increased US soybean sales to Cuba following comments from the Obama administration seeking to end more than 50 years of hostility between the two countries. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are in the region of 600-800 TMT for beans. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.27, up 3 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.35 1/4, up 4 cents; Jan 15 Soybean Meal closed at $359.30, up $2.70; Jan 15 Soybean Oil closed at $31.77, unchanged.

Corn: The corn market also posted small advances of a couple of cents or so, helped by surging wheat prices. Some news agencies reported that China had approved MIR 162 corn for import, although Reuters said that three sources at large Chinese corn importers that they had contacted said that they had received no such notification as yet. They also reported Chinese buyers booking 900 TMT of US DDGS in the past week, with state-owned COFCO the main buyer. That's something that they'd be unlikely to do without knowledge that approval of MIR 162 was imminent. If they know it's coming then they may have decided to act now before DDGS prices went up, it is thought. US ethanol production was reported at a new record 990,000 barrels/day - the third record week in the past four. South Korea's MFG bought 126,000 MT of optional origin corn for April shipment. South American weather remains generally favourable, although there's some talk creeping in of developing dryness in parts of Argentina. Martell Crop Projections report that "weather conditions in the Midwest have grown progressively drier over the past several weeks. This is reflective of an emerging El Nino, as Midwest winters are often very dry with El Nino." Weekly export sales tomorrow are expected to be around 600-800 TMT. Mar 15 Corn closed at $4.08 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents; May 15 Corn closed at $4.16 1/2, up 2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with strong gains. Turmoil in Russia is the main reason. Various reports appear to confirm that exporters are having extreme difficulty getting export certificates in a timely manner. It's being suggested that Turkey, Egypt, Armenia and India are being singled out for referential treatment, and exports to those destinations will get pushed through, but everybody else can go and whistle. This appears to have brought trade in Russian wheat to a virtual standstill very quickly. Exporters don't want to sell, for fear of getting caught having to pay expensive demurrage bills as vessels sit at the quayside waiting for customs clearance. That means that also neither are they a buyer on the domestic market all of a sudden. That leaves the government's intervention fund program looking a more attractive proposition than it has up until now. There are reports of Argentine wheat now trading into African and Middle Eastern homes, where buyers are shying away from even considering Russian wheat. There should also be a pick up in interest for EU and US wheat too. Note too the absence of large Russian wheat buyer Saudi Arabia from the unofficial list of approved homes. Is that just a coincidence, or a poke in the eye for the country seen by many as being responsible for the collapse in crude oil prices that is causing Russia so much stress at the moment? Mar 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.48 1/2, up 25 1/4 cents; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.81 1/2, up 26 3/4 cents; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.59 3/4, up 25 1/2 cents.

17-12-2014 10:29 AM | Chicago Reports
16/12/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on concerns about the Chinese economy and with a weaker Brazilian real heading bearish influences. The latter triggered a bout of Brazilian producer that selling that Benson Quinn said was the heaviest seen since last March. AgRural said Brazil bean planting is 96% complete versus 98% on average. Another bad day at the office for crude oil added to the bearish tone. Fund money was said to have ditched around a net 6,000 soybean contracts on the day. It is estimated that Chinese soybean imports will peak at around 7.5 MMT this month, before falling to around 7 MMT in January and 5 MMT in February (Chinese New Year). This is a normal seasonal trend. Oil World estimated the global 2014/15 soybean crop at 312.9 MMT versus a previous estimate of 309.1 MMT and compared to the 2013/14 production of 285.0 MMT. Their new figure is almost identical to the USDA's 312.8 MMT. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.23 1/2, down 16 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.31 1/4, down 14 3/4 cents; Jan 15 Soybean Meal closed at $356.60, down $8.80; Jan 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.77, down 50 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 2 cents lower. There continues to be talk of China finally approving MIR 162 corn and DDGS with traces of it for import, but no official confirmation of this has yet been forthcoming. The spectre of crude oil now falling to levels not seen since the dark times of the 2009 aftermath to the sub-prime led financial crisis are hard to ignore, although corn is doing its best to do just that. Ethanol values have held up very well, up until now, but are finally starting to show signs of cracking. Or should that be fracking? South Korea's MFG is shopping for 280,000 MT of optional origin corn for April shipment. South America might be the most likely winner of that business. "While US corn offers have gotten more competitive, I wouldn’t give the US the competitive edge into many potential destinations," said Benson Quinn's Brian Henry. Coceral increased their estimate for the EU-28 corn crop from the previous 72.8 MMT to a new record 73.5 MMT, which is more than 10 MMT up on a year ago. They peg the French crop at a record 16.91 MMT, although some other estimates are in the 17-18 MMT region. Mar 15 Corn closed at $4.06, down 2 1/2 cents; May 15 Corn closed at $4.14 1/2, down 2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed higher across all three exchanges. Russia raised their interest rates from 10.5% to a hefty 17% overnight in an effort to stabilise the rouble which had earlier fallen to new all time lows against the dollar and euro. Gossip abounds concerning some form of covert export restrictions being introduced. There's talk that the Russian Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance Service is now saying it will only release phytosanitary certificates to buyers from Turkey, Egypt, Armenia and India. Other reports suggest that some loaded vessels are sat portside waiting for clearance, which currently isn't forthcoming. Russia has announced a hike in the intervention price it will pay to farmers, as was expected. Following the recent demise of the rouble however the prices on the table are still below what is available on the cash market. The most likely beneficiary of Russia standing away from the export market is likely to be Europe before the US however. Coceral raised their forecast for the EU-28 soft wheat crop to 148.5 MMT, which is 12 MMT above last year's level. They see France at 37.45 MMT versus 36.87 MMT a year ago, with Germany at 27.81 MMT versus 24.87 MMT and the UK at 16.52 MMT versus 11.92 MMT. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.23 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.54 3/4, up 7 3/4 cents; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.34 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents.

16-12-2014 09:49 AM | Chicago Reports
15/12/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 7 to 8 cents lower. Weekly export inspections were 1.82 MMT, down from 2.2 MMT a week ago, but still a decent volume. Year-to-date exports are now 25.567 MMT versus 20.879 MMT this time last year. The November NOPA crush came in at 161.2 million bushels. This was below trade expectations, but still a record for the month. South American weather looks friendly. "The forecast calls for above average rainfall in the majority of Brazil soybeans, favouring the interior of the country," said Martell Crop Projections. The FSA reported the 2014 US soybean "prevent planted" area at 841,000 acres versus the November figure of 839,000 acres and 1.702 million acres a year ago. They put the 2014 planted area at 81.626 million acres versus the November figure of 81.392 million and 75.277 million in 2013. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.39 1/2, down 7 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.46, down 7 3/4 cents; Jan 15 Soybean Meal closed at $365.40, down $1.60; Jan 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.27, down 9 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with small gains, aided by spillover support from wheat. Weekly export inspections were fairly modest at 546,515 MT. Talk that China will finally approve MIR 162 corn and its by-products was friendly. So too is continued chatter that Ukraine is struggling to supply China with all their existing purchases on time, and of the quality they demand. The FSA reported the number of US 2014 "prevent plant" area at 1.606 million acres versus the November figure of 1.594 million and 3.614 million in 2013. They put the US 2014 corn planted area at 86.285 million acres versus the November figure of 85.842 million and 92.359 million a year ago. Russia said that their 2014 corn harvest was effectively concluded at 11.6 MMT, with yields averaging 4.56 MT/ha versus 5.28 MT/ha a year ago. APK Inform estimated Ukraine's 2014/15 corn exports at 18 MMT, down 8.8% from a year ago. Corn continues to do its best to ignore plunging global crude oil prices. Mar 15 Corn closed at $4.08 1/2, up 1 cent; May 15 Corn closed at $4.16 1/2, up 3/4 cent.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with decent gains. Belief is growing that although Russia probably will not issue an all out export embargo, they will introduce export restrictions in one form or another, whether covertly or otherwise. The Russian rouble fell to yet another fresh all time low against the US dollar today. The FSA reported the US 2014 "prevent plant" wheat area at 1.38 million acres versus the November figure of 1.379 million and 2.013 million a year ago. Plantings were put at 53.521 million acres versus the November figure of 53.451 million and compared to 53.775 million a year ago. APK Inform estimated Ukraine's 2014/15 wheat exports at 10.8 MMT, a 16.4% increase on a year ago. Weekly US export inspections of 385,974 MT were up 42.8% from the previous week, but still no better than routine. EU winter wheat conditions have taken a turn for the worse with increasing dryness in Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic, but also extreme wetness in the Mediterranean countries Italy Romania and Hungary, say Martell Crop Projections. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.19, up 12 1/2 cents; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.47, up 12 3/4 cents; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.32 1/2, up 11 3/4 cents.

13-12-2014 15:39 PM | Chicago Reports
12/12/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed a two-sided day with gains of around 5 cents. Expiring Dec 14 meal took a complete nose-dive, other months were mixed. The USDA reported 110 TMT of US beans sold to "unknown" for 2015/16 delivery. A Chinese trade delegation are in town next week, with "showcase" deals likely to be forthcoming. The last time these guys were over in September when 4.8 MMT worth of soybean sales were reported to have been signed. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that farmers there have 71.94% of their 2013/14 soybean crop sold versus 80.39% a year ago. You will recall that the National Bank of Argentina, the country's top agricultural lender, recently said that it will stop extending credit to, and possibly even close the accounts of, farmers who cannot prove that they have sold all of their old crop inventory come Jan 1st. New crop soybeans are 4.23% sold versus 4.43% a year ago. NOPA release their November US crush data on Monday "with estimates of a year on year increase of 3.3% which, if realized, would be at a record 165.4 mln bushels," according to Benson Quinn. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.47 1/4, up 5 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.53 3/4, up 5 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $378.90, down $27.20; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 31.97, up 4 points. For the week Jan 15 beans added 11 1/4 cents, with Dec 14 meal down $15.30 and Dec 14 oil 4 points lower.

Corn: The corn market closed with decent gains on fund buying. A rumour that China had approved MIR 162 corn was doing the rounds, but it cannot be confirmed. Reuters reported that Syngenta said that they expected approval "soon" and the US Grains Council said it hoped for confirmation of approval "in the coming days". Reports that Ukraine is struggling to fulfil its obligation to ship 19 cargoes of corn to China, and may default on around 20% of the agreed volume, raises a bit of hope for US corn to again step into the void left. Ukraine exporters are saying that the fighting in the country means that they may not be able to ship the agreed volume by the Feb 2015 quota deadline. Sceptics might suggest that they simply think they can now make better prices elsewhere. Certainly in local currency terms they definitely can. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there have 90.78% of their 2013/14 corn crop sold versus 84.14% a year ago. New crop is 15.31% sold versus 6.15% a year ago. Turkey, said to be the seventh largest importer of the product, announced that they are to ban the import of US DDGs on GM issues. South Korea bought 60,000 MT of optional origin corn for Feb-March shipment. The corn market did its best to ignore the alarming slump in crude oil values, which now stand at their lowest levels since May 2009. "There is a case to be made for institutional traders identifying the Ag sector as their best option to put capital to work," suggested Benson Quinn. Dec 14 Corn went off the board at $3.96 1/4, up 6 1/4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $4.07 1/2, up 9 cents. For the week Dec 14 was 14 3/4 cents higher, with Mar 15 up 12 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed higher on more rumours of Russia introducing measures to at least slow up exports, if not go the whole hog and issue a formal embargo. Nearby Dec 14 went off the board on all three exchanges. "Newswires confirmed comments made by an Agricultural Minister that all options would be considered except for an outright export ban, which can’t happen due to Russia’s recently joining the WTO," said Benson Quinn. Intervention prices might be raised next week it seems, but that could be just the tip of the iceberg. As well as the new phytosanitary rules to cope with, there are now reports circulating of an emergency draft law being put together to force Russian companies and exporters to sell half of their foreign currency reserves to the Central Bank in an effort to shore up the ailing rouble. Recent Bank of Russia intervention in the currency markets has done little to help stabilise that for anything more than hours. In other news, Egypt said that it's wheat stocks were sufficient to last until April. That would be assuming that all their Russian purchases turn up! Argentina approved a further 1 MMT of wheat for export. The head of the Rosario Grain Exchange said this week that Argentina's 12 MMT wheat crop this year, plus carryover stocks from last year, will enable them to supply all of Brazil's anticipated 7 MMT import requirement in 2014/15. The Argentine harvest is now past halfway done. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there have still only sold 80.13% of last year's crop, versus 100% this time a year ago. Conversely, new crop wheat is said to be 32.09% sold versus 15.71% a year ago. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.27 1/2, up 17 1/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.34, up 10 1/2 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.70, up 50 cents. For the week that puts nearby Chicago wheat up 18 1/2 cents, with Kansas just 1 1/2 cents firmer and Minneapolis up 50 1/2 cents.

12-12-2014 10:59 AM | Chicago Reports
11/12/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 10 cents higher. Weekly export sales of 810,300 MT for 2014/2015 were down 31 percent from the previous week and 20 percent below the prior 4-week average. "Soybean sales have reached 84.5% of the new USDA export estimate, which compares to a 5 year average of 76.8%," said Benson Quinn. "Soy meal sales have reached 59% of the current USDA estimate, which compares to a 5 year average of 51.2%," they added. Actual shipments of 2.4 MMT remain very robust, with China alone taking more than 1.5 MMT of that total. The Rosario Grains Exchange, in their first estimate for the season, forecast Argentina’s 2014/15 soybean crop at 55.0 MMT, which is in line with yesterday's USDA figure. IMEA said Mato Grosso farmers have sold 34.1% of their 2014/15 soybean crop versus 48.8% this time a year ago. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.42 1/4, up 10 1/4 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.48 3/4, up 10 1/4 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $406.10, up $0.90; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 31.93, up 26 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 4-5 cents higher, save for the expiring Dec 14 which closed up 7 1/2 cents. Weekly export sales of 962,800 MT for 2014/15 were down 18 percent from the previous week, but up 9 percent from the prior 4-week average, and in line with expectations. Exports of 678,300 MT were primarily to Japan (246,400 MT), Peru (103,900 MT), Mexico (95,000 MT), Colombia (77,000 MT), Costa Rica (38,400 MT) and Saudi Arabia (36,300 MT). The Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s 2014/15 corn crop at 21.5 MMT, unchanged from previous estimate and 0.5 MMT below the USDA's forecast of yesterday. Ukraine said that their 2014 corn harvest is now 98% complete at 27.52 MMT. They said that 2014/15 grain exports were 16.358 MMT, including 5.172 MMT of corn. Fund money was estimated as being a net buyer of around 3,000 corn contracts on the day. The market continues to do a decent job of ignoring the ongoing slump in crude oil prices. Iran said that crude could hit $40/barrel if OPEC doesn't get itself in order soon. US ethanol production though is running at record levels. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.90, up 7 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.98 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with good gains. Weekly export sales of 442,300 MT for delivery in the 2014/15 marketing year were up 39 percent from the previous week and 16 percent above the prior 4-week average. They were also towards the top end of trade estimates for once. Egypt's GASC picked up 180 TMT of wheat in their tender, two cargoes being Russian origin and one of French. The prices paid were significantly cheaper than their last purchase, and it was particularly interesting to see Russian wheat be competitive again. Some are suggesting that this was a "let's get it sold and shipped whilst we still can" move. "News eventually began to trickle out that a Russian ag minister made statements indicating they would attempt to reduce exports and would eventually raise Russian intervention prices to keep the domestic market supplied," said Benson Quinn. That's the first time that there's been anything but a flat denial from Russia that this sort of move could be on the cards, even if it has been widely rumoured. Japan bought 143,317 MT of milling wheat for Jan/Feb shipment in their regular weekly tender. The origin was split between US, Canada and Australia. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.10 1/4, up 17 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.23 1/2, up 8 3/4 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.20, up 22 cents.

12-12-2014 09:49 AM | Chicago Reports
11/12/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 10 cents higher. Weekly export sales of 810,300 MT for 2014/2015 were down 31 percent from the previous week and 20 percent below the prior 4-week average. "Soybean sales have reached 84.5% of the new USDA export estimate, which compares to a 5 year average of 76.8%," said Benson Quinn. "Soy meal sales have reached 59% of the current USDA estimate, which compares to a 5 year average of 51.2%," they added. Actual shipments of 2.4 MMT remain very robust, with China alone taking more than 1.5 MMT of that total. The Rosario Grains Exchange, in their first estimate for the season, forecast Argentina’s 2014/15 soybean crop at 55.0 MMT, which is in line with yesterday's USDA figure. IMEA said Mato Grosso farmers have sold 34.1% of their 2014/15 soybean crop versus 48.8% this time a year ago. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.42 1/4, up 10 1/4 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.48 3/4, up 10 1/4 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $406.10, up $0.90; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 31.93, up 26 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 4-5 cents higher, save for the expiring Dec 14 which went off the board up 7 1/2 cents. Weekly export sales of 962,800 MT for 2014/15 were down 18 percent from the previous week, but up 9 percent from the prior 4-week average, and in line with expectations. Exports of 678,300 MT were primarily to Japan (246,400 MT), Peru (103,900 MT), Mexico (95,000 MT), Colombia (77,000 MT), Costa Rica (38,400 MT) and Saudi Arabia (36,300 MT). The Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s 2014/15 corn crop at 21.5 MMT, unchanged from previous estimate and 0.5 MMT below the USDA's forecast of yesterday. Ukraine said that their 2014 corn harvest is now 98% complete at 27.52 MMT. They said that 2014/15 grain exports were 16.358 MMT, including 5.172 MMT of corn. Fund money was estimated as being a net buyer of around 3,000 corn contracts on the day. The market continues to do a decent job of ignoring the ongoing slump in crude oil prices. Iran said that crude could hit $40/barrel if OPEC doesn't get itself in order soon. US ethanol production though is running at record levels. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.90, up 7 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.98 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with good gains. Weekly export sales of 442,300 MT for delivery in the 2014/15 marketing year were up 39 percent from the previous week and 16 percent above the prior 4-week average. They were also towards the top end of trade estimates for once. Egypt's GASC picked up 180 TMT of wheat in their tender, two cargoes being Russian origin and one of French. The prices paid were significantly cheaper than their last purchase, and it was particularly interesting to see Russian wheat be competitive again. Some are suggesting that this was a "let's get it sold and shipped whilst we still can" move. "News eventually began to trickle out that a Russian ag minister made statements indicating they would attempt to reduce exports and would eventually raise Russian intervention prices to keep the domestic market supplied," said Benson Quinn. That's the first time that there's been anything but a flat denial from Russia that this sort of move could be on the cards, even if it has been widely rumoured. Japan bought 143,317 MT of milling wheat for Jan/Feb shipment in their regular weekly tender. The origin was split between US, Canada and Australia. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.10 1/4, up 17 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.23 1/2, up 8 3/4 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.20, up 22 cents.

11-12-2014 09:49 AM | Chicago Reports
10/12/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, and near session lows. The decline came despite the USDA raising US 2014/15 soybean exports and lowering ending stocks a bit more than the average trade guesstimate. Exports were increased 40 million bushels, with a corresponding drop in carryout of the same magnitude to 410 million bu. That was a little below the 425 million ballpark that was the average trade guess. There were no changes to 2014/15 production for the US, Brazil, Argentina, China or India. Paraguay and Canada were tweaked a little higher. The world import picture was virtually unchanged, except for a small increase for Indonesia. A 1 MMT rise in US soybean exports was virtually matched by reductions of 700 TMT and 200 TMT respectively for Brazil and Argentina. The US crush was left unchanged, contrary to some people's ideas. World ending stocks therefore came in at around 400 TMT lower than last month at almost 89.9 MMT, which was pretty much in the middle of the 88.5-91.5 MMT range expected. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.32, down 17 1/4 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.38 1/2, down 17 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $405.20, down $6.40; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 31.67, down 24 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around a cent or two lower. The USDA lowered US 2014/15 corn ending stocks by 10 million bushels to just under the 2 billion mark, contrary to trade expectations for a 15 million increase. World ending stocks came in at 192.2 MMT, a small rise versus last month and almost slap bang in the middle of trade expectations of between 190 and 194 MMT. The trade was expecting production in Argentina to be unchanged, and Brazil maybe to be lowered by 1 MMT. The USDA went the other way round, cutting Argentina 1 MMT to 22 MMT and leaving Brazil unchanged at 75 MMT. China's production was raised 1.5 MMT to 215.5 MMT, and Europe's was increased 0.5 MMT to a record 73.6 MMT. China's import needs were scaled back from 2.5 MMT to now only 2 MMT "on a larger crop and as policies continue to encourage imports of alternate feed grains." Chinese sorghum imports were raised 400 TMT to 5 MMT. Conab forecast Brazil's 2014/15 corn crop at a large 78.9 MMT, which is some 10 MMT more than Informa said last week. This appears to suggest a larger "safrinha" crop than many think is possible given that this season's soybean harvest is likely to be later than hoped for. The US Energy Dept put ethanol production at a new record 988k barrels/day for the past week. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.82 1/2, down 1/2 cent; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.93 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. The USDA estimated US ending stocks at 654 million bushels, up 10 million from last month. "US stocks are forecast slightly higher year-to-year in spite of a smaller crop as high relative prices make exports less competitive," they said. World wheat production was raised by more than 2 MMT to a new record 722.2 MMT. That came courtesy of a surprise hike in output for Canada, up from the 27.5 MMT forecast last month to 29.3 MMT. Kazakhstan's crop was also raised, up from 12 MMT to 12.5 MMT. Australia's crop was left unchanged at 24 MMT where some had expected a reduction. World ending stocks were increased 2 MMT to just shy of 195 MMT. These were only expected to come in around 191.8 MMT, from within a range of guesses from 189.5 MMT to 193.2 MMT. "Global wheat consumption is projected at a record in 2014/15. Food use is expanding because of population growth, urbanization, and rising incomes. Growth is particularly strong in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. Even with consumption at a record, exporter ending stocks are up nearly 20 percent from last year," they noted. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.93 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.14 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.98, down 6 cents.

10-12-2014 09:19 AM | Chicago Reports
09/12/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans ended with fairly modest 5-6 cents gains ahead of the release tomorrow's USDA WASDE report. That is expected to reflect the current very strong pace of US soybean exports by raising those from the existing forecast of 46.8 MMT, with a subsequent lowering in ending stocks. These were projected at 450 million bushels last month, but could come in around the 425 million mark this time round. Strong demand for meal could also lead them to up the size of the US crush this season, also potentially eating into those ending stocks and reducing them further. World soybean ending stocks are expected to be around 88.5-91.5 MMT versus 90.3 MMT a month ago. Conab are also due to release their revised Brazilian production numbers tomorrow as well. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.49 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.55 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $411.60, up $10.10; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 31.91, up 14 points.

Corn: The corn market closed higher in what looks like book-squaring and short covering ahead of tomorrow's report. US corn ending stocks are forecast to rise around 15 million bushels to 2.023 billion bu in that. Argentine production will probably be left unchanged at 23 MMT, but Brazil's might be lowered from the current 75 MMT it is thought, with some other analyst's estimates below 70 MMT. The late planting of their full season soybean crop is likely to eat into their second crop corn area it is thought. Current corn prices in Brazil also offer little incentive. The world ending stocks figure is expected to come in between 190 and 194 MMT, according to a Bloomberg survey. Last month's figure was 191.5 MMT. The trade will also be looking at Conab's take on Brazilian corn production tomorrow, and in addition to that we will also have the weekly US ethanol grind data from the US Energy Dept. Last week's production was 962,000 barrels/day. Ukraine said that they'd now exported more than 5 MMT of corn this season. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.83, up 5 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.95 1/4, up 5 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed sharply lower. The trade is wondering what tomorrow's report will hold for wheat. It seems that there is a possibility that the USDA might lower projected US wheat exports in 2014/15 from last month's 25.5 MMT estimate. That could raise ending stocks from the 644 million bushels estimated in November. EU wheat exports on the other hand might rise from last month's 28 MMT. World ending stocks are expected to come in around 191.8 MMT, from within a range of guesses from 189.5 MMT to 193.2 MMT, and versus 192.9 MMT a month ago. Essentially, there is no shortage of wheat around at the moment, and although demand is also buoyant, it's not generally US wheat that the world is buying. ABARES cut their forecast for the Australian wheat crop by 1 MMT to 23.2 MMT. "The worst damage has occurred in Victoria where the wheat harvest is pegged down 28%. Western Australia, the leading wheat state, is expecting a 20% shortfall," said Martell Crop Projections. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.00 1/2, down 9 1/2 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.17, down 17 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.04, down 13 cents.

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